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OF OCTOBER THE 17TH, 2018.COUNCIL MEMBER BROCK HOUSE COUNCIL MEMBER SANDOVAL HERE.
COUNCIL MEMBER COURAGE PRESENT.
WELCOME TO OUR CITY COUNCIL B SESSION AGENDA.
THE TIME IS 2:14 PM UH, WE HAVE ONE ITEM ON OUR AGENDA FOR TODAY.
UH, SO I'LL TURN IT OVER TO OUR CITY MANAGER, CHERYL SCULLEY.
THE ITEM ON TODAY'S AGENDA WILL BE PRESENTED BY DR.
COLLEEN BRIDGER, OUR DIRECTOR OF PUBLIC HEALTH, AND OF COURSE, SHE'S GOING TO TALK WITH US ABOUT THE RESULTS OF THE LOCAL OZONE FORMATION STUDY.
AND SHE WILL INTRODUCE OUR GUEST SPEAKER WHO WILL TALK SCIENTIFICALLY ABOUT THE RESULTS OF THAT STUDY.
AS YOU ALL KNOW, ON SEPTEMBER 24TH, UH, THE E P A, THE ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY AT THE FEDERAL LEVEL, OFFICIALLY DESIGNATED BEXAR COUNTY IN MARGINAL NON-ATTAINMENT OF THE FEDERAL GROUND LEVEL OZONE STANDARDS.
UH, IN AUGUST, METRO HEALTH DID PRESENT TO THE COUNCIL THE OZONE ATTAINMENT NEXT STEPS THAT THE CITY WILL ENGAGE IN ORDER TO ADDRESS AND STEPS THAT WE ALL CAN TAKE TO IMPROVE OUR AIR QUALITY.
AND OF COURSE, UH, DURING THE PRESENTATION TODAY, WE'RE GOING TO HEAR FROM AN AIR QUALITY EXPERT, DR.
HARVEY JEFFRIES, AND HE'S GOING TO BE MAKING THE PRESENTATION FOLLOWING COLLEEN'S UH, INTRODUCTORY REMARKS.
JEFFRIES IS A NATIONALLY RECOGNIZED ATMOSPHERIC CHEMIST WHO HAS BEEN STUDYING OZONE FORMATION FOR MANY YEARS AND HAS BEEN SUCCESSFUL IN OTHER TEXAS CITIES PROVIDING ANALYSIS OF OZONE LEVELS.
JEFFRIES CONDUCTED A STUDY ON LOCAL AMBIENT OZONE FORMATION USING SAN ANTONIO AIR QUALITY MONITORS.
JEFFRIES WILL SHARE THE RESULTS OF HIS STUDY GAPS IN DATA AND RECOMMENDATIONS FOR NEXT STEPS TO LOWER THE OZONE LEVEL IN SAN ANTONIO.
BRIDGER WILL PROVIDE A SUMMARY OF THE NEXT STEPS IN OUR OZONE ATTAINMENT PROCESS.
AND I WANT TO AGAIN, THANK, UH, DR.
BRIDGER FOR TAKING ON THIS ASSIGNMENT.
SHE IS LEADING OUR TEAM AND EFFORT ON BEHALF OF THE CITY OF SAN ANTONIO WITH REGARD TO AIR QUALITY WITHIN OUR CITY.
SO WITH THAT, I'D LIKE TO ASK DR.
BRIDGER TO COME FORWARD, MAKE HER INTRODUCTORY REMARKS, AND THEN WE WILL HEAR FROM DR.
SO IT IS A GREAT HONOR TO BE ABLE TO INTRODUCE TO YOU DR.
JEFFRIES EARNED HIS MASTER'S DEGREE IN AIR AND INDUSTRIAL HYGIENE AND HIS PHD IN ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY, BOTH FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF NORTH CAROLINA CHAPEL HILL, MY ALMA MATER.
HE'S A PROFESSOR EMERITUS OF ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING AT THE GILLINGS SCHOOL OF GLOBAL PUBLIC HEALTH UNIVERSITY OF NORTH CAROLINA CHAPEL HILL.
SINCE 2011, HE HAS BEEN THE PRINCIPAL OF OH THREE CHEMISTRY AND RESEARCH SINCE 1983, AND HE IS A NATIONAL EXPERT IN HIS FIELD AND HAS RECEIVED MULTIPLE HONORS AND AWARDS FOR HIS RESEARCH AND LEADERSHIP ACTIVITIES.
AS THE CITY MANAGER MENTIONED, DR.
JEFF'S WORK HAS BEEN INSTRUMENTAL IN LOWERING OZONE LEVELS IN OTHER TEXAS CITIES, INCLUDING HOUSTON AND JEFFERSON COUNTY, WHICH IS BEAUMONT PORT ARTHUR.
SO THE WAY THIS IS GONNA WORK IS HE'S GONNA WALK YOU THROUGH THE RESULTS OF HIS STUDY.
UM, AND THEN I'M GONNA COME UP AND LET YOU KNOW THE NEXT STEPS, AND THEN WE'LL BOTH BE HERE TO ANSWER YOUR QUESTIONS.
SO I'D LIKE TO TURN IT OVER TO DR.
THANK YOU COLLE MAYOR, COUNCIL MEMBERS.
IT'S AN HONOR TO BE HERE, UH, TO DO THIS.
UM, I'VE ALWAYS HAD AN INTEREST IN OTHER PARTS OF TEXAS AFTER SPENDING LOTS OF TIME IN HOUSTON.
UH, AND IT'S INTERESTING TO, UH, FIND OUT THAT MANY OF
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THE UNDERLYING SCIENTIFIC ISSUES THAT WE'VE EXAMINED IN HOUSTON APPLY TO MANY PARTS OF TEXAS SO THAT, UM, IT'S NOT LIKE YOU'RE DOING ALL OF THIS FOR JUST THE FIRST TIME.UH, IT MIGHT BE THE FIRST TIME FOR YOU, BUT THE DYNAMICS, THE CHEMISTRY AND THE PHYSICS TURNED OUT TO BE PRETTY MUCH, UH, THE SAME.
AND SO YOU'LL SEE A LOT OF COMPARISONS TODAY BETWEEN, UH, HOUSTON AND SAN ANTONIO AND A LITTLE BIT OF EL PASO.
UH, AND THAT'S BECAUSE I'VE ONLY HAD ABOUT EIGHT MONTHS TO LOOK AT ALL OF YOUR DATA FOR ALL OF THAT PERIOD OF TIME AND UNDERSTAND WHAT'S THE SAME AND WHAT'S DIFFERENT.
SO IT'LL TAKE A LITTLE WHILE TO DO THAT.
UH, LET'S GO TO THE NEXT SLIDE.
COLLEEN SAID ALMOST ALL OF THIS, UH, WAS AT ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AT U N C FOR 44 YEARS.
UH, WAS THE SCIENCE ADVISOR FOR THE HOUSTON EIGHT HOUR OZONE COALITION STAKEHOLDERS FROM ABOUT 2000 UNTIL ABOUT 2012.
UH, BUT NOW HOUSTON IS BACK WITH A DIFFERENT SUBTLE KIND OF PROBLEM.
AND I'VE BEEN WORKING ON THE HOUSTON PROBLEM SINCE 2015, UM, UNTIL THE PRESENT TIME, AND I'M STILL WORKING ON THAT PROBLEM WITH THEM.
UM, I WAS A MEMBER OF THE NATIONAL URBAN AIR TOXIC CENTER, WHICH WAS HOUSED IN TEXAS FOR A NUMBER OF YEARS.
WAS A MEMBER OF THE CALIFORNIA AIR RESOURCES BOARD, UH, FOR, UH, AIR QUALITY ISSUES FOR A WHILE, A U S E P, A SCIENCE ADVISORY BOARD ADVISORY COUNCIL, UH, CALIFORNIA AIR RESOURCES BOARD REACTIVITY ADVISORY.
UM, I HAD THE OPPORTUNITY AND I WAS U N C IS ONLY EIGHT MILES AWAY FROM THE E P A OFFICE IN THE RESEARCH TRIANGLE PARK.
AND THEY MOVED IN THERE WHILE I HAD, JUST AS I FINISHED MY PHD.
UM, I'VE HAD MANY, MANY, MANY MILLIONS OF DOLLARS OF RESEARCH FROM THEM.
AND IN PART OF THAT, UM, THEY THOUGHT THAT SINCE I WAS EIGHT MILES AWAY, THEY WOULD CALL ME UP AND SAY, WE'RE HAVING A MEETING THIS AFTERNOON AND WE THINK IT MIGHT BE INTERESTING.
COULD YOU COME OUT? SO I WOULD GO OUT.
AND SO THROUGH THIS PROCESS, I LEARNED TO MEET MANY, MANY PEOPLE AND SPEND LOTS OF TIME AND PROVIDE A LOT OF, UH, FREE CONSULTING.
SO I, I'M VERY FAMILIAR AND HAVE BEEN, AND I HAVE MAYBE 15 OR 18 STUDENTS WHO ACTUALLY WORK AT THE E P A OFFICE OF POLICY PLANNING.
I HAVE MORE WORKING IN POLICY PLANNING AT E P A THAN I DO IN THE RESEARCH OFFICE.
UM, I WAS AWARDED THIS PLAQUE FOR HAVING GONE ON THE ROAD WITH THEM AND PUT UP WITH ALL OF THE ISSUES AND PROBLEMS OF GOVERNMENT TRAVEL, UM, AND HAVING A LOT OF FUN.
AND IN FACT, IT WAS ONE OF THOSE TRIPS THAT I MET A LADY FROM TEXAS WHO WAS INVOLVED IN THE T C Q AND I BECAME MUCH MORE INTERESTED IN WHAT WAS GOING ON IN TEXAS.
BECAUSE OF THAT, I WAS ADDED TO A BUNCH OF ADVISORY BOARDS, AND I SPENT A LOT OF TIME GOING AROUND THE UNIVERSITIES HERE AND FIGURING OUT WHO WAS DOING WHAT.
AND EVENTUALLY THAT ATTRACTED THE ATTENTION OF THE COALITION PEOPLE, UM, WHO ASKED ME TO REVIEW THE SIP.
AND I TOLD 'EM I DIDN'T HAVE TIME.
AND THEY SAID, WELL, WE'LL PAY YOU DOUBLE.
AND SO EVENTUALLY I REVIEWED THE SIP AND I BECAME SO INTERESTED IN IT.
SO I'M VERY, VERY INTERESTED IN THE ISSUES HERE.
HOUSTON AND THIS WHOLE BAND OF TEXAS AT 30 DEGREES, THE MOST IN MOST INTERESTING AIR QUALITY PROBLEM PROBABLY IN THE WORLD.
AND WE'VE JUST FOUND OUT THAT ONE OF THESE ISSUES REPEATS ITSELF IN TAIWAN.
WE WERE LOOKING FOR OTHER PLACES WHERE IT MIGHT HAPPEN EXACTLY THIS WAY.
UH, SO WHAT I'M, WHAT I DO IN THERE ARE NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE IN AIR QUALITY WHO DO THIS.
I ACTUALLY LOOK AT THE OBSERVATIONS HOUR BY HOUR DETAIL BY DETAIL, EVERYTHING.
I, I DON'T LIKE TO TAKE ALL THE SUMMARY AND INFORMATION AND SO FORTH.
THE THE EIGHT HOUR AIR QUALITY STANDARD IS VIRTUALLY MEANINGLESS SCIENTIFICALLY.
YOU CAN'T DEDUCE ANYTHING FROM A WHOLE LIST OF NUMBERS THAT ARE EIGHT HOUR.
YOU HAVE TO GO BACK AND DECOMPOSE THEM INTO THE ONE HOUR VALUES, INTO THE INDIVIDUAL SITUATIONS, INTO THE INDIVIDUAL CONDITIONS.
YOU CAN'T UNDERSTAND A MISHMASH OF FOUR DIFFERENT CAUSES INTO A SINGLE NUMBER, AND THEN THINK THAT YOU CAN DO ANYTHING ABOUT IT BY ANALYZING AND LOOKING AT THOSE NUMBERS.
SO I GO BACK TO, UH, THE REAL NUMBERS ARE TAKEN EVERY FIVE MINUTES, BUT THEY AVERAGE THOSE TOGETHER TO EIGHT MINUTES.
SO THERE ARE 21 AIR QUALITY MONITORS IN SAN ANTONIO AREA.
UM, THREE OF THEM ARE REGULATORY, AND I HAVE GIVEN THEM MY OWN NAMES.
UH, PEOPLE DOWN HERE KEEP REFERRING TO 'EM WITH C NUMBERS AND I DON'T KNOW THE C NUMBERS AND I DON'T CARE.
SO I HAVE A LOT OF ABBREVIATIONS 'CAUSE I NEED FILE NAMES.
BULLIS, UH, SAN ANTONIO, UH, SOUTHWEST AND CALAS LAKE.
UM, SO ON THOSE MONITORS, I'VE LISTED ALL THE OBSERVATIONS THAT ARE THERE.
WE, I HAVE A TOTAL OF 92 DIFFERENT KINDS
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OF OBSERVATIONS AVAILABLE TO ME FOR YEARS 2012, 2015 AND 2016.UM, AND SO I START WITH THOSE DATA AND REPROCESS 'EM AND ANALYZE 'EM IN VARIOUS WAYS.
AND THAT'S WHAT I'M GONNA SORT OF WALK YOU THROUGH.
UM, MY TASK IS TO TURN THESE HOURLY DATA INTO SOMETHING, INTO MEANINGFUL GRAPHS AND PLOTS AND TO CONTRAST THESE AMONG EXCEEDANCES AND NON EXCEEDANCES FOR OZONE.
AND THEN SEE IF I CAN FIGURE OUT WHY EACH OCCURRED AND WHY NOT.
NOW, AGAIN, THAT'S NOT THE WAY IT'S NORMALLY APPROACHED BY REGULATORS.
THEY SIMPLY LOOK AT THE EIGHT HOUR NUMBERS AND COME UP AND SAY, YOU'VE GOTTA DO THIS.
'CAUSE THAT'S THE WAY THE LAW IS.
AND ORDER TO DO IT, YOU GOTTA FIGURE OUT WHY.
AND IF YOU WANNA FIGURE OUT WHY, YOU GOTTA GO LOOK AT THE HOURLY DATA AND YOU GOTTA SPEND A LOT OF TIME WITH IT.
SO YOU'LL FIND MANY PEOPLE USE ONLY THE EIGHT HOUR NUMBERS, AND THOSE JUST, THEY DON'T TELL YOU MUCH.
SO I USE MOSTLY ONE HOUR NUMBERS, UH, CALCULATE ALL THE EIGHT HOUR NUMBERS, AND THEN I ANALYZE THEM AND TRANSLATE MY ONE HOUR INFORMATION BACK INTO THE EIGHT HOUR DOMAIN.
UM, SO A GRAPH ON THE RIGHT HAND SIDE OF IT HERE IS TYPICAL.
THAT'S ONE MONTH OF BULLIS FOR, UH, AUGUST OF 2015.
AND ONE OF THE THINGS THAT, AND I'LL GO OVER THIS IN SOME DETAIL IN A FEW MINUTES BELOW, IT IS THE NOX DATA LINED UP EXACTLY THE SAME WAY.
NOW, ONCE WE UNDERSTAND WHY THERE ARE THREE DIFFERENT PERIODS OF VIOLATION IN THAT ONE MONTH AND IN THE OTHER PERIODS, THERE ARE NONE WHY THAT IS HAPPENING, AND THEN TRY TO DIG FURTHER INTO IT.
UH, ONCE YOU UNDERSTOOD WHAT THE CAUSES ARE, YOU HAVE A BETTER IDEA OF WHAT YOU THINK YOU'RE GONNA DO TO CUT DOWN OR PREVENT THESE.
UM, NOW WHAT DO I MEAN BY EXPLANATIONS? WELL, THERE ARE A WHOLE QUALITY OF EXPLANATIONS.
THE ONE ON THE BOTTOM IS MISSING.
UM, THERE'S NONE AVAILABLE AND ALL OF 'EM MAKES SENSE.
UM, YOU CAN'T ARGUE ONE OR THE OTHER.
AND AT LEAST THE ADVANTAGE OF PERMISSIVE IS YOU HAVE AN EXPLANATION.
YOU DON'T KNOW IF IT'S THE RIGHT ONE OR NOT.
OTHERS COULD BE THE EXPLANATION, BUT YOU CAN SHOW THAT THIS COULD BE THE EXPLANATION BECAUSE YOU HAVE SOME SUPPORTING INFORMATION FOR IT.
THE ONE YOU WOULD LIKE AND WHICH IS MOSTLY LIKE THE LEGAL STANDING IS PREPONDERANT.
AND NOT ONLY THAT, WE HAVE TESTED AND LOOKED AT IT AND IT LOOKS LIKE IT'S THE MOST LIKELY EXPLANATION, BUT I CAN'T ACTUALLY RULE OUT THESE OTHER TWO THAT MIGHT BE MAYBE 5% PROBABILITY.
SO THAT'S THE WHERE YOU'D LIKE TO BE IF YOU'RE GONNA MAKE DECISIONS AND MAKE PEOPLE SPEND MONEY.
NOW, THE BEST ONE OF ALL IS COMPELLING.
THIS IS THE EXPLANATION, AND WE CAN PROVE IT OVER AND OVER AND OVER.
THAT'S ALMOST THAT, THAT'S VERY RARE IN AIR QUALITY.
SO MOSTLY IF WE'RE DOING THINGS CORRECTLY, WE'LL BE IN THE SORT OF PREPONDERANT RANGE, BUT THEY'LL STILL BE COMPETING ALTERNATIVE EXPLANATIONS THAT MIGHT ACTUALLY HAPPEN.
NOW THE PROBLEM WITH ALL OF THIS, AND IF YOU'RE TRYING TO MAKE A DECISION THAT'S VERY ABSTRACT.
SO I CAME UP WITH ANOTHER COMPLETE DESCRIPTION CALLED DEFENSIBLE EXPLANATION.
THAT IS, YOU GOTTA DEFEND WHAT YOU'RE DOING.
YOU CAN'T JUST SAY, OH, I KNOW WHY THAT'S HAPPENING.
YOU HAVE TO HAVE SOME DEFENSE.
AND LET'S LOOK DOWN THAT LINE.
THERE'S VERIFIABLE INFORMATION, THAT'S SCIENTIFIC INFORMATION, THAT'S INFORMATION THAT CAN BE TESTED, CAN BE TESTED BY ANOTHER PERSON, CAN BE REPEATED, GETS PUBLISHED IN THE BOOKS.
THAT'S THE TRUTH IN A SENSE, AS WE KNOW IT BEST TODAY, GUESS WHAT? WE DON'T HAVE VERY MANY OF THOSE WE'RE STUCK.
UM, THAT'S ESSENTIALLY THE SCIENCE SIDE.
HERE'S WHAT YOU CAN DO WITH THAT INFORMATION.
YOU CAN BUILD WONDERFUL CONCEPTUAL MODELS, AND A CONCEPTUAL MODEL IS FULL.
IT'S TEXTURED, IT'S RICH, IT'S FEATURED, BUT GUESS WHAT? YOU CAN'T CALCULATE WITH IT.
IT'S JUST A CONCEPTUAL IDEA IN YOUR HEAD.
IT LEADS YOU TO CONNECT THIS IDEA AND THAT IDEA.
BUT YOU CAN'T TURN THE CRANK AND GET AN ANSWER.
IT WON'T TELL YOU WHETHER YOU'RE GONNA BE IN ATTAINMENT OR NOT.
IT MIGHT EXPLAIN WHY YOU MIGHT NOT BE IN THE GENERAL, BUT IT WON'T TELL YOU WHY.
THE OTHER SIDE OF THIS IS WHAT'S CALLED VINDICATED.
IT TOOK ME A WHILE TO GET USED TO THE WORD VINDICATED.
LOOK IT UP, TRY IT OUT, UNDERSTAND IT.
IT MEANS THAT, UM, BASICALLY THE SIMPLEST WAY IS DOING THE BEST.
NOW HOW DO YOU KNOW YOU'RE DOING THE BEST? YOU KNOW HOW? 'CAUSE YOU GO THROUGH IT AND SAY, THERE'S THIS CHOICE, BUT THIS IS BETTER THAN THAT.
OTHER WORDS, YOU HAVE TO DEFEND THOSE CHOICES.
YOU CAN'T JUST SAY, HEY, I GOT THIS MODEL.
THE MODEL IS IT BEING USED BY EVERYBODY, SO LET'S GO USE IT.
IF YOU REALLY WANT TO KNOW WHAT YOU'RE DOING, YOU HAVE TO HAVE A DEFENSE OF ALL OF THE ISSUES, CHOICES.
YOU'D HAVE TO SHOW THAT ALTERNATIVE COMPETING EXPLANATIONS ARE NOT AS GOOD AS THE ONES YOU'RE USING.
THAT'S AN ENGINEERING APPROACH.
AN ENGINEER, HE, HE CAN'T GET THE, HE CAN'T FIT THE EQUATION
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TO THE ACTUAL DATA POINTS, BUT HE CAN FIT A CURVE THROUGH IT, AND THAT MIGHT BE THE BEST YOU COULD DO.AT LEAST HE'S GOT THE DATA AND THE CURVE, AND HE CAN MAKE A CALCULATION THAT HE CAN SHOW YOU WHERE THE NUMBERS CAME FROM.
NOW, THAT KIND OF INFORMATION CAN BE OPERATIONALIZED.
YOU CAN TURN IT INTO A TOOL, A MODEL.
YOU CAN MAKE PREDICTIONS, UH, YOU CAN PUT INPUTS IN, YOU CAN OPERATE THE PROCESS AND YOU GET OUTPUTS OUT.
UH, ALL THOSE OPERATIONAL MODELS THOUGH, THEY SUFFER FROM THREE PRINCIPLE PROBLEMS. SO ALL MODELS, THEY'RE GENERALIZED.
YOU TREAT THINGS THAT ARE, UH, THAT ARE CLOSE AS ALL THE SAME.
SO YOU DO GRIDS, PUT A GRID IN, EVEN THOUGH THE GRID MIGHT HAVE CITY MIGHT HAVE, UH, HOUSES AND RIVERS AND INDUSTRY, YOU'RE STILL LUMPING INTO ONE CATEGORY.
ADD IT ALL UP AND TREAT IT LIKE IT'S ONE THING THAT'S GENERALIZED.
DISTORTED MEANS I DON'T HAVE TIME TO DO ALL THE LITTLE DETAILED STEPS.
I'LL JUST COME UP WITH A FORMULA.
IT GETS ME FROM THE FIRST STEP TO THE LAST STEP, AND I'LL JUST, IT'S A DISTORTION.
IF THIRD ONE IS I DON'T EVEN CARE IF METHANE DOES EXIST, I'M NOT GONNA PUT IT IN MY MODEL.
THAT'S COMMONLY DONE DELETION.
SO THESE THREE PRINCIPLES APPLY TO EVERY SINGLE MODEL.
AND IF YOU'RE GONNA BE USING A MODEL TO MAKE DECISIONS WITH, YOU OUGHT THINK ABOUT AND ASK THE PEOPLE WHO ARE DOING THE MODELING, WHAT KIND OF GENERALIZATIONS, WHAT KIND OF DISTORTIONS AND WHAT KIND OF DELETIONS SHOW UP IN YOUR MODEL THAT ARE GONNA AFFECT MY USE OF YOUR MODEL.
NOW, THE ADVANTAGE OF ALL OF THIS IS YOU CAN FORECAST THE, THE SCIENCE SIDE, THE VERIFIED SIDE.
THERE'S NO, THERE'S NO MODEL OVER THERE.
THERE'S NO TURNING IT INTO SOMETHING YOU CAN CRANK.
IT'S, BUT IT TELLS YOU WHAT KINDS OF ISSUES, FACTS, PROCESSES, ET CETERA.
BUT A BUT A TOOL LIKE A MODEL, UH, IS OPERATIONAL.
THE ADVANTAGE OF AN OPERATIONAL MODEL IS YOU MAKE FORECAST.
NOW THE QUESTION IS, IS THE FORECAST ANY GOOD? AND THAT'S WHY YOU WANT TO HAVE IT VERIFIED, DOING THE BEST I KNOW HOW, ET CETERA, ET CETERA.
THAT'S THE DEFENSE FOR OPERATING A MODEL, WHICH IS GONNA TELL YOU SOMETHING 10 YEARS FROM NOW.
AND YOU WANT TO MAKE SURE THAT IF YOU'RE GONNA SPEND A LOT OF MONEY ON IT, SOMEBODY HAS GONE THROUGH AND DONE THIS KIND OF WORK.
THE PROBLEM WITH THOSE FORECASTS IS THEY ARE UNVERIFIABLE FUTURE STATES.
THE MODEL SAYS YOU'LL BE IN ENTERTAINMENT OR NOT IN ENTERTAINMENT, BUT THERE'S NO WAY IT'S 10 YEARS DOWN THE ROAD.
YOU CAN'T KNOW THAT'S GONNA BE THE CASE.
YOU HAVE TO TRUST THE MODEL'S, OKAY? BUT IF THE MODEL IS SUFFERING FROM INTERACTIONS AND PROBLEMS, AND I'LL SHOW YOU A FEW OF THOSE, YOU CAN'T COUNT ON THE MODEL FOR THAT PURPOSE.
NOW, HOW DO YOU THEN GO MAKE A DECISION? WELL, YOU GOTTA BRING EVERYTHING YOU'VE GOT TO THE TABLE.
YOU'VE GOTTA HAVE, UH, EXPECTATIONS, A LOGICAL ANALYSIS FROM YOUR CONCEPTUAL MODEL.
YOU'VE GOT TO HAVE, UH, ANALYSIS AND WORK ON THE OPERATIONAL MODELS THAT EXAMINE THE CAUSE OF THE ANSWER IN THE OPERATIONAL MODEL.
AND THAT TALK ABOUT THE RESPONSE IN THOSE.
SO THAT THEN COMBINED ALL TOGETHER AND THOUGHT ABOUT ALL TOGETHER ALLOWS YOU TO MAKE THE BEST POSSIBLE DECISION YOU CAN AT THE MOMENT.
NOW, WHAT DID E P A DO AFTER COMING TO REALIZE THIS WAS THE CASE? THEY SAID, WELL, YOU KNOW, WE'VE BEEN MAKING THESE DECISIONS OF GOING OUT HERE TO THIS NUMBER OF YEAR, AND THEN WE JUST BUILD IT OUT.
AND YOU GO, WELL, NOW WHAT THEY'VE SAID IS WE NEED A MIDCOURSE CORRECTION.
SO THEY HAVE A MIDCOURSE CORRECTION WHERE YOU WAIT.
SO THAT'S THE DEADLINE, BUT THEY WANNA KNOW HOW WELL ARE YOU ACTUALLY DOING ALONG THE PATHWAY FOR THE FIRST TIME? THAT'S THE FIRST TIME THEY STARTED DOING THAT.
AND SO THEN THEY ASK YOU TO DO A BUNCH OF NOT QUITE FULL BLOWN WORK, BUT EXAMINE, NOW YOU HAVE A HISTORY THAT'S HALFWAY.
DOES IT LOOK LIKE WHAT YOU SAID WAS GONNA HAPPEN, IS HAPPENING, OR IS IT NOT? SO THAT'S HOW THAT PART WORKS.
NOW, A LOT OF YOU KNOW, OZONE BECAUSE YOU'RE BEING REGULATED FOR IT, BUT I DON'T THINK YOU KNOW VERY MUCH ABOUT HOW COMPLICATED OZONE IS.
IT IS ONE OF THE MOST MESSY, HARD TO UNDERSTAND, UH, CONTRARY, UH, INGREDIENT IN THE ATMOSPHERE.
FIRST OF ALL, NOBODY EMITS OZONE.
SO YOU CAN'T GO TO SOME PLANT AND SAY, AH, NO, WE'RE GONNA REGULATE THE AMOUNT OF OZONE YOU'RE EMITTING.
OZONES MADE IN THE AIR AND IT'S MADE AT THE EARTH'S SURFACE ONLY FROM OXIDES OF NITROGEN, NNO AND N O TWO.
YOU PUT THOSE TWO TOGETHER, THEY BECOME N O X AND VOCS VOLATILE ORGANIC CARBON COMPOUNDS.
SO THOSE TWO IN THE PRESENCE OF SUNLIGHT WILL REACT TO MAKE OZONE.
AND E P A A LONG TIME AGO HAD A SIMPLE MODEL THAT WORKED FOR MANY YEARS AND STILL APPLIED AROUND THE WORLD.
AND THAT'S THIS MODEL I'M SHOWING YOU HERE.
THIS IS ONE EXAMPLE WHERE YOU, UH, ON THE LEFT HAND SIDE IS A THREE TO ME, THREE INITIAL MODEL OZONE IS THE LINES THAT GO AROUND.
UM, THERE'S A SOLID BLACK LINE
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THAT SHOWS YOU THE OZONE THAT WOULD BE PRODUCED AT CONSTANT, UH, KNOCKS, BUT VARYING THE V O C.AND YOU SEE EVERY, EVERY INCREASE IN V O C LEADS TO A SLIGHT INCREASE IN OZONE.
YOU NEVER HAVE A CASE WHERE INCREASING V O C LOWERS OZONE.
SO THAT PATHWAY SHOWS IT GOING UP.
LOOK AT THE N O X SIDE, THAT'S THE LITTLE CROSS PIECE AT THE BOTTOM THERE.
IF YOU START FROM ZERO AND GO TO THE LEFT AT FIRST, AS YOU INCREASE N O X OZONE GOES UP.
BUT IF YOU KEEP GOING, IT GOES DOWN.
AND THE MORE YOU PUT N O X IN, THE LOWER IT GOES, WELL, GUESS WHAT? HOUSTON TRIED TO USE IT AS A CONTROL STRATEGY.
LET'S JUST ADD A LOT MORE KNOCKS THAT'LL LOWER THE OZONE.
OR THEY WERE AFRAID THAT IF THEY REDUCED THE NOSS THEY HAD, IT WOULD MAKE THE OZONE WORSE.
SO THERE'S A CASE, IF YOU'RE A POLICYMAKER, YOU'RE GONNA GO OUT AND SPEND A BILLION DOLLARS AND REDUCE NOS AND THE OZONE PROBLEM'S GONNA GET WORSE.
HOW DOES THAT WORK? NOT VERY GOOD.
SO THE PROBLEM IS IT'S QUITE COMPLICATED AND, AND THE RESPONSE DEPENDS UPON WHERE YOU START.
SO YOU COULD HAVE CASES WHERE YOU REDUCE VOCS BY LARGE AMOUNTS.
YOU SPEND A FORTUNE, YOU DIDN'T GET ANY GAIN AT ALL.
SO THERE'S A, THIS MAKES IT VERY DIFFICULT TO SORT OF DEAL WITH THIS.
HERE'S ANOTHER ONE THAT'S REALLY DIFFICULT.
YOU CAN DILUTE THE HECK OUT OF THE PRECURSORS, AND WHILE YOU'RE DOING THAT AND THEY'RE GOING AWAY, OZONES GETTING HIGHER AND HIGHER AND HIGHER AND HIGHER, YOU CAN'T DILUTE OZONE IN A REACTIVE SYSTEM.
THE MORE YOU DO THE DILUTION, THE MORE THE OZONE GOES UP.
SO YOU'VE GOT THIS CRAZY PROBLEM THAT WHERE ALL OF THESE THINGS ARE INTERACTING TOGETHER AND YOU KNOW WHAT YOU HEAD AIN'T GOOD ENOUGH TO SOLVE THIS.
SO IF YOU REALLY WANNA CALCULATE THE NUMBERS AND CHANGE, YOU GOTTA HAVE A MODEL OF SOME KIND.
QUESTION IS HOW GOOD'S THE MODEL, HOW MANY THINGS ARE IN THE MODEL? HOW MANY OTHER THINGS ARE ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE MODEL? BUT BASICALLY WITHOUT THE MODEL, YOU CAN'T OPERATIONALIZE THE ISSUE WITH OZONE.
YOU CAN'T ACTUALLY GET THE RESPONSE, ET CETERA, UNLESS YOU'RE RUNNING A MODEL.
THE MODEL HIDES SO MANY THINGS.
IF ALL YOU'RE DOING IS RUNNING THE MODEL, YOU COULD GET ANSWERS THAT ARE ABSOLUTELY WRONG.
SO THERE'S AN ISSUE OF, WELL, HOW GOOD'S THE MODEL? AND THEN YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT HOW GOOD'S THE MODEL 20 YEARS FROM NOW OR 10 YEARS FROM NOW, YOU DON'T KNOW.
YOU'RE COUNTING ON THE MODEL BEING RIGHT.
HOW DO YOU KNOW THE MODEL IS RIGHT? YOU TEST IT.
GUESS WHAT? E P A DOESN'T TEST ANYTHING OTHER THAN THE BASE YEAR.
THEY DON'T TEST ANYTHING IN THE FUTURE.
SO THE PROBLEM WITH THE URBAN ENVIRONMENT INVOLVES EMISSIONS, DISPERSION REACTIONS, DEPOSITION.
YOU NEED WIND OBSERVATIONS TO DO THE DISPERSIONS, DILUTIONS AND TRANSPORT.
YOU NEED CHEMICAL SPECIES OBSERVATIONS TO DO REACTIONS, EXPOSURE AND DEPOSITION.
SO YOUR MONITORS HAVE TO HAVE A FULL ENOUGH COMPLIMENT OF INSTRUMENTS TO GET MEANINGFUL INFORMATION.
IF ALL YOU SAW WAS THE OZONE AT A MONITOR AND YOU DON'T HAVE THE WINDS OR YOU CAN'T FIGURE OUT ANYTHING YOU SAID, OH, I GOT OZONE.
SO IT'S NECESSARY TO HAVE FAIRLY COMPLICATED SYSTEMS. AND ONLY THREE, WELL, THERE'S ABOUT 15, ONLY THREE OR LEGALLY ACCEPTABLE IN THE AREA OF, UH, OF SAN ANTONIO.
UM, AN UM, SAN ANTONIO, UH, NORTHWEST AND LAKE GUEVARA.
THE THE LAKE IS ABSOLUTELY USELESS.
THE WIND BLOWS ACROSS THE LAKE AND SCREWS EVERYTHING UP.
SO THAT MONITOR IS ABSOLUTELY, U NEVER SHOWS A VIOLATION.
DOESN'T AGREE WITH ANYTHING ELSE.
SO THE ONLY TWO MONITORS WE'RE REALLY CONCERNED ABOUT ARE AT CAMP BULLS AND THE ONE AT, UM, ON THE WESTERN SIDE.
SO HERE'S, HERE'S THE FIRST THING.
NOW THIS COMES FROM LOTS OF EXPERIENCE IN TEXAS.
WE'VE ANALYZED 200,000 HOURS OF MONITOR DATA FROM 2000 TO NOW IN HOUSTON.
AND THIS IS WHERE ALL OF THIS FIRST KNOWLEDGE CAME FROM.
WE'VE APPLIED THAT SAME ANALYSIS FOR SEVERAL YEARS NOW IN SAN ANTONIO.
WE'VE APPLIED IT FOR A COUPLE OF YEARS IN EL PASO AND WE GET PRETTY MUCH, UH, AS YOU MIGHT HOPE, SAN ANTONIO HAS A DISTINCTIVE DIFFERENCE.
AND SO DOES EL PASO, THEN HOUSTON.
BUT IN GENERAL, THE PHENOMENA WE'RE TALKING ABOUT FOR BOTH WINDS AND FOR CHEMISTRY IS THE SAME IN ALL THREE LOCATIONS.
AND I'LL SHOW YOU WHY IN JUST A FEW MINUTES TO MAKE OZONE IN TEXAS CITIES, WE HAVE DISCOVERED THAT THERE ARE NECESSARY WIND CONDITIONS.
IN OTHER WORDS, IF YOU DO NOT HAVE THESE WIND CONDITIONS IN THE CITY ON THAT DAY, YOU DO NOT HAVE A VIOLATION PERIOD THEN.
AND THERE ARE CERTAIN WIND CONDITIONS, IF YOU HAVE THEM, THEY'RE NECESSARY TO HAVE A VIOLATION, BUT YOU STILL MIGHT NOT HAVE A VIOLATION.
IT'S IF YOU DON'T HAVE THOSE WIND CONDITIONS, YOU WON'T
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HAVE A VIOLATION.SO WE CAN SEPARATE THAT PART OUT.
THE SUFFICIENT CONDITIONS ARE HAVING THE WINDS THAT YOU NEED.
DO YOU ALSO HAVE THE CHEMISTRY THAT YOU NEED? SO THE WINDS SET UP THE, THE, THE NECESSARY ENVIRONMENT FOR THE CHEMISTRY TO TAKE PLACE.
IF YOU DON'T HAVE THE CHEMICALS, THERE'S NO CHEMISTRY TAKING PLACE, BUT THE WIND'S STILL SET UP.
SO THIS IS THE KIND OF DIVISION WE'RE GONNA DO.
NECESSARY CONDITIONS COMMON TO ALL SAN ANTONIO OZONE EXCEEDANCES ARE DAILY THREE Q FOUR Q WIN ROTATIONS.
I'LL EXPLAIN WHAT THOSE MEAN EXACTLY IN A MINUTE.
BUT THERE'S A SPECIAL TWO Q CASE THAT WE DID DISCOVER DEPENDING ON THE YEAR.
NOW THIS IS THE POINT, DEPENDING ON THE YEAR, BETWEEN 50 TO 60% OF THE ANNUAL DAYS AT THE BULLISH SITE EXHIBIT THE NECESSARY WIND CONDITIONS.
SO YOU HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY HALF THE TIME OR MORE TO MAKE OZONE VIOLATIONS AT BULLOUS.
ON THE OTHER HAND, YOU ONLY DID IT ON 18 DAYS.
WHOA, WELL WHAT HAPPENED? SO YOU HAVE A NECESSARY ENVIRONMENT THAT COULD HAVE PUT YOU IN DEEP TROUBLE, BUT SOMETHING'S DIFFERENT ABOUT THE CHEMICAL SIDE, AND THAT'S WHAT WE'RE TRYING TO UNDERSTAND AND FIGURE OUT.
THEN IN BLUE IT SAYS HERE, THIS IS MOST LIKELY CAUSED BY THE SUFFICIENT CHEMICAL CONDITIONS NOT BEING ACHIEVED ON THOSE DAYS.
WELL, GUESS WHAT? THAT'S THE TARGET OF CONTROL STRATEGIES.
YOU'RE TRYING TO GET THIS STUFF NOT BE AVAILABLE, EVEN THOUGH THE METEOROLOGY IS HAPPENING NOW, IT'S HAPPENING TO YOU NATURALLY.
YOU HAVE SOME DAYS THAT DO AND A LOT OF DAYS THAT DON'T.
WHY? WHAT'S THE DIFFERENCE? IF YOU GET THAT PIN DOWN, YOU MIGHT FIGURE OUT WHAT YOU NEED TO DO TO MAKE ALL THE DAYS BE THAT WAY.
WE JUST, WE DISCOVERED IT IN 2000.
SOME OTHER PEOPLE KNEW ABOUT IT, BUT NO ONE HAD EVER WRITTEN ABOUT IT.
AND WE DISCOVERED IT BY ANALYZING MONITORS IN HISTON.
AND AS I SAID, WE'VE NOW ANALYZED OVER, UH, A HUNDRED THOUSAND MONITOR HOURS AND THIS HOLDS UP.
NOW WHAT IS THE, WHAT IS THE DEAL? IT TURNS OUT WE HAVE THE FULL SCIENCE TO EXPLAIN THIS.
I'LL SHOW YOU IN JUST A SECOND, BUT TO SHOW YOU HOW WIDESPREAD IT IS AND WHAT THE DIFFERENCE IS, THIS IS, UH, WHAT ARE, THESE ARE WIND SOUNDERS THAT SIT AT THE GROUND AND MEASURE THE WINDS ALL THE WAY UP BY A SONIC DEVICE AND THEY CAN SEE WHICH WAY THE WINDS ARE GOING AND THE SPEEDS AND SO FORTH.
SO IN THE TEX 2000 FUEL PROGRAM, THEY PUT ALL THESE MONITORS TOGETHER IN DIFFERENT LOCATIONS, AND OUR FRIEND AND BUDDY WHO'S THE METEOROLOGIST AT, UH, TEXAS A AND M, UH, JOHN NIELSEN GAMMON, WHO'S BEEN INVOLVED WITH ME IN THE HOUSTON OZONE AND AND OTHER STUFF, ANALYZE THESE FOR US RECENTLY.
AND WHAT YOU SEE IS WINDS ROTATE ALL OVER TEXAS.
THEY ROTATE THE MOST AT 30 DEGREES.
WHO'S AT 30 DEGREES HOUSTON, YOU GUYS ARE CLOSE.
SAN ANTONIO, I MEAN, UH, EL PASO IS CLOSE.
THE THE CLOSER YOU ARE AT 30, THE MORE OPPORTUNITIES YOU HAVE FOR ROTATING WINDS.
TURNS OUT THE OZONE PROBLEM LIKE THAT IS THE SAME IN TAIWAN AT 30.
NOW WHAT'S, WHAT'S ABOUT 30? THAT WAS FUNNY.
IT'S CAUSED BY THE CORIOLIS FORCE ON THE ONE HAND AND BY THE LARGE SCALE FLOW OF AIR FROM HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW PRESSURE ON THE OTHER HAND.
AND THEY SET UP A RIGHT ROTATION OF THE WIND.
SO THE WIND DURING THE DAY TURNS FROM COMING FROM HERE TO HERE, TO HERE, TO HERE, TO HERE TO HERE.
AND WHAT'S SPECIAL ABOUT HI AT 30 DEGREES, IT TAKES 24 HOURS TO CLOSE THE CIRCLE.
SO AT MIDNIGHT YOU START OUT GOING THIS WAY, YOU GO ALL THE WAY AROUND THE COMPASS, THE WIND COMES FROM ALL THESE DIFFERENT DIRECTIONS DURING THE DAY AND AT MIDNIGHT IT COMES BACK TO WHERE IT WAS.
SO YOU REPEAT, REPEAT, REPEAT.
AND WHEN THE WIND'S ROTATING LIKE THAT, HOW MUCH DISPERSION IS THERE? NOT MUCH.
'CAUSE THE WIND'S ALWAYS TURNING AROUND AND AROUND AND IT BRINGS IT BACK OVER ITSELF.
SO THIS WAS ALL PROVEN EVENTUALLY BY DAY ONE, BUNN AT THE UNIVERSITY OF HOUSTON.
HE WAS AT ONE TIME A GRADUATE STUDENT IN THE COURSE OF MINE.
HE WORKED AT E P A AND BUILT THIS WHOLE E P A MODELING SYSTEM AND WROTE 27, PAGE 27 DOCUMENT DEFINITION EXPLANATION, ET CETERA OF IT.
AND THEN GOT OFFERED A FULL PROFESSORSHIP AT UNIVERSITY OF HOUSTON, UM, IN 2003 AND MOVED IN AND THEN SAW THIS PROBLEM FOR THE FIRST TIME AND THEN EXPLAINED IT.
NOW, I DON'T EXPECT Y'ALL TO READ THIS OR LOOK, I JUST WANT TO TELL YOU, THERE IS SCIENCE.
THIS IS WHAT'S CALLED PROVEN SCIENCE, ET CETERA.
ALL THE EQUATIONS CAN BE WRITTEN OUT, ET CETERA, BUT YOU GOTTA BE A REALLY GENIUS TO FIGURE IT OUT AND UNDERSTAND IT.
WHAT I WANT YOU TO SEE IS THE DIAGRAMS
[00:30:01]
DOWN BELOW, THEY SHOW THAT THE WIND CAN GO ALL KINDS OF WAYS.A ONE Q WIND, A ONE QUADRANT WIND GOES IN A STRAIGHT LINE, A TWO QUADRANT WIND STARTS OUT THIS WAY AND THEN TURNS AND GOES THAT WAY.
THAT'S TWO QUADRANTS DURING THE DAY.
IT MIGHT START OUT UP HERE AND TURN THAT WAY OR IT MIGHT START OUT HERE AND TURN THAT WAY.
THEY JUST HAPPEN TO BE THE WIND CHANGED DIRECTION BY AT LEAST 90 DEGREES.
THEN YOU CAN HAVE THEM DO STUFF LIKE LOOPY LOOP THE WIND GOES UP, TURNS TO THE RIGHT, GOES AROUND THIS WAY, COMES BACK AROUND, CROSSES ITSELF, AND THEN GOES UP AGAIN.
SO WE SEE THESE PATTERNS IN HOUSTON ALL THE TIME.
GUESS WHAT? WE SEE 'EM RIGHT HERE TOO.
SO WHY, BECAUSE YOU'RE BOTH NEAR 30 DEGREES AND THE 30 DEGREES FIGURES IN.
YOU CAN SEE HOW ALL THAT WORKED.
THEN THE OTHER PIECE OF THAT IS THE HIGH PRESSURE OR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS. SO HERE'S A CASE WHERE IF YOU LOOK ON THE LEFT HAND SIDE, YOU CAN SEE THAT THERE'S A HIGH PRESSURE, THAT'S THE BLUE AND THE AIR'S COMING DOWN AND THE ROTATION IS WHAT COUNTS.
YOU SEE WHICH WAY IT'S ROTATING, IT'S GOING CLOCKWISE.
ON THE OTHER SIDE, THERE'S A LOW PRESSURE AREA.
THE AIR IS GOING UP AND WHICH WAY IS THE AIR ROTATING? IT'S ROTATING COUNTER-CLOCKWISE.
SO IN BETWEEN, IF YOU LOOK, THE AIR'S GOING IN THE SAME DIRECTION FROM THE LOW IT'S GOING THIS WAY AND FROM THE HIGH IT'S GOING THAT WAY AND THAT ADDS TOGETHER.
SO THERE'S TRANSPORT IN THE MIDDLE OF THOSE TWO.
THAT IS FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE NORTHWEST IS TYPICAL.
LET'S LOOK AT THE REAL WEATHER MAP FOR ONE OF THOSE CASES I JUST SHOWED YOU A MINUTE AGO, THE 29TH, THE HIGH PRESSURE SITTING OVER NORTH CAROLINA AND THOSE ARE THE BROWN LINES THAT GO AROUND AND THE LOW PRESSURE SITTING OVER JUST NORTH TEXAS SETS UP HOUSTON AND SAN ANTONIO FOR A CIRCULAR FLOW THAT GOES EXACTLY LIKE THAT.
FLOW COMES OFF THE GULF, COMES THROUGH THE PLACE AND GOES NORTH.
SO THAT WOULD BE THE LARGE SCALE FLOW.
THAT'S THE ONE FORCE THAT'S GOING ON DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE, LOW PRESSURE.
THE OTHER FORCE THEN IS THIS COLI EFFECT THAT'S GOING ON LOCALLY.
AND THESE TWO INTERACT TOGETHER TO CREATE THE KIND OF TRAJECTORIES AND PROBLEMS YOU HAVE.
I MADE THESE MAPS, I HAVE ALL THESE CAPABILITIES I CAN DO EVERY DAY, EVERY HOUR, ET CETERA.
UM, AND THE LINES HERE ARE THE, THE LITTLE DOTS OR THE MONITORS, THE LITTLE BARS OR HOW MUCH OZONE THERE IS.
IF IT'S RED, YOU'RE IN TROUBLE.
THEN THERE'S BLACK ARROWS AND IF YOU LOOK ON THE LEFT HAND SIDE, THAT'S 6:00 AM IN THE MORNING AND THE HIGHEST OZONE IS THAT FOUR OAKS UP AT THE VERY HIGH NORTH SIDE AND IT'S 36 P P B.
IF YOU LOOK AT BULLIS, WHICH IS RIGHT DOWN BELOW THERE, BULLIS'S ARROW IS POINTING SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST AND IT'S TEENY.
AND IF YOU, YOU LOOK AT THE ONE AT SAN ANTONIO NORTH, IT'S THE SAME THING.
LET'S GO TO TWO O'CLOCK IN THE AFTERNOON, WHICH IS ON THE RIGHT AND YOU SEE THE WIND'S HAULING THE RIGHT UP THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WHOLE PLACE.
SO IT COMPLETELY CHANGED DIRECTION FROM 6:00 AM TO TWO O'CLOCK IN THE AFTERNOON AND IT WENT FROM BEING ALMOST NO MOVEMENT TO BEING HUGE MOVEMENT.
NOW THE OTHER THING I WANT YOU TO GET IS THE CIRCLES OVER HERE, THEY'RE TWO KILOMETERS APART.
SO THAT WHOLE THING IS SIX IS 16 KILOMETERS.
ACROSS THE BOTTOM IS A BLACK BAR THAT'S 75 KILOMETERS.
JUST TO GET YOU TO GET THE SCALES.
SO HOURLY OBSERVATIONS AND OZONE EXCEEDANCES, HOW OFTEN ARE THERE OZONE EXCEEDANCES OTHER THAN THESE NUMBER OF QUADRANTS AND WIND? ARE THERE OTHER CHARACTERISTICS? WHAT IS THE RANGE OF DAILY OZONE? WHAT'S THE TRANSPORTED OZONE? WHAT'S THE, YOU KNOW, TITRATED OZONE? WHICH DIRECTION DOES IT COME FROM? HOW FAR DOES IT COME? SO THAT'S WHERE I'M GOING NEXT.
SO HERE'S THAT SAME TIME SERIES DIAGRAM.
AND IMMEDIATELY LET'S LOOK AT THE TOP.
I'VE DRAWN THE WIND TRAJECTORIES.
SO AT THAT LINE GOING ACROSS AT 100 IS THE STATION.
AND FOR EACH DAY I HAVE PLOTTED HOW FAR THE WIND WAS EACH HOUR FROM THE STATION BEFORE NOON AND HOW FAR DID IT GO AFTER NOON.
AND THE LITTLE TRIANGLE, THE LITTLE SQUARE AT THE TOP UP THERE, I'VE REPRODUCED IT ON THE RIGHT HAND SIDE IT SAYS 30 K, THAT 30 K IS THE LENGTH.
SO THAT LENGTH OF THAT AMOUNT UP ON THE GRAPH UP THERE IS A 30 KILOMETER MOVEMENT.
AND THEN THE COLORS ARE FROM ZERO TO 6:00 AM THEY'RE BLACK FROM 6:00 AM TO NOON, THEY'RE GOLD FROM NOON TILL 6:00 PM THEY'RE BLUE FROM 6:00 PM TO MIDNIGHT.
SO IF YOU LOOK AT THESE, YOU CAN TELL THAT FOR EXAMPLE, ON THE FOURTH, THE WIND BLEW PRETTY GOOD WAYS, 120 KILOMETERS OR SO, AND IT BLEW STRAIGHT THROUGH ALMOST.
IF YOU LOOK RIGHT NEXT TO THAT, YOU'LL SEE THERE'S A LITTLE TWO Q.
SO THE WIND ACTUALLY LEANED BACK OVER AND THEN CAME BACK THIS WAY AND THAT WAS ENOUGH TO COUNT FOR TWO CUES.
WHAT YOU SEE IS IF YOU LOOK DOWN BELOW AT THE OZONE, THE BLACK LINE IS THE OZONE, THE BLUE LINE IS THE WIND SPEED, THE WIND SPEEDS ON THE RIGHT, THE OZONES ON THE LEFT.
IF YOU LOOK AT THAT, WHAT YOU SEE IS
[00:35:01]
THAT WHOLE PERIOD, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 HAD OZONE.THAT WAS NO HIGHER THAN 40 OR 45.
AND IF YOU LOOK UP THERE, THEY'RE ALL STRAIGHT LINES.
SO IF YOU GET STRAIGHT LINE FLOW THROUGH THE CITY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH, YOU GET NOTHING.
YOU GET NO, YOU GET BACKGROUND OZONE THAT ONLY GOES DOWN TO BACKGROUND OZONE.
THREE DAYS BEFORE THAT YOU NOTICE THE CURLY, THE TRAJECTORIES ARE ALL KNOTTED UP, THEY'RE OVER TOP OF EACH OTHER, THEY'RE ALL KNOTTED UP, THEY'RE OVER TOP OF EACH OTHER, ET CETERA.
IF YOU GO TO THE PERIOD OF THE 14TH, 15TH, AND 16TH, THE SAME THING HAPPENED.
AS SOON AS THE METEOROLOGY GOT TO WHERE YOU HAD THESE SCREWED UP TRAJECTORIES, YOU STARTED HAVING LOTS OF OZONE.
AS SOON AS THE METEOROLOGY GOT DOMINATED BY A MASSIVE FLOW, IT ALL BLEW AWAY.
SO THE QUESTION IS, WHY DID 1, 2, 3, 13, 14, 15, 16 AND THEN 27, 28, 29 ALL HAVE OZONE? THEY, THEY HAD THE CONDITIONS.
NOW YOU CAN SEE THAT ON THE 24TH AND 25TH THERE WERE CLOSE TO THOSE CONDITIONS AND YOU DIDN'T REALLY HAVE OZONE.
SO THESE ARE THE ONES WE WANNA EXAMINE AND I WILL SPEND MORE TIME ON LOOKING AT THOSE.
SO THE SECOND THING I DO IS BLOW UP PARTS OF THAT DIAGRAM.
HERE ARE THE, HERE ARE THE LAST THREE.
AND IF YOU LOOK AT IT, THE HIGHEST PREDICTION AT BULLIS FOUR 2015 WAS THE 29TH.
AND THERE'S A ONE AT THE TOP UP THERE THAT'S THE HIGHEST RANK.
AND THAT BLACK LINE IS ONE HOUR OZONE.
IT'S ALSO THE NUMBER ONE EIGHT HOUR OZONE.
SO THAT RED BAR IS THE CALCULATED EIGHT HOUR AVERAGE OF THE ONE HOUR VALUES THAT IS THE HIGHEST FOR THE DAY.
SO AS YOU SEE, YOU CAN TELL WHICH HOURS ARE INVOLVED AND WHAT THEIR VALUES WERE.
SO IT, IT HAD A REALLY HIGH PEAK ON IT THAT ADDED TO IT.
SO THAT WAS THE HIGHEST EIGHT HOUR, IT WAS THE HIGHEST ONE HOUR.
IF YOU GO TO THE ONE BEFORE THE TWO BEFORE THAT, GO TO THE 27TH, THE TWO IS, THAT WAS THE HIGHEST DAY, SECOND HIGHEST DAY FOR ONE HOUR.
IT WAS THE SECOND HIGHEST DAY FOR EIGHT HOUR.
IF YOU LOOK AT THE BOTTOMS, YOU'LL SEE THAT THE WINDS AT NIGHT ARE GOING TO ZERO INSIDE THOSE PURPLE CIRCLES.
THE WIND SPEED JUST STOPS FOR HOURS.
IT JUST DOESN'T MOVE VERY FAR.
SO ANY KIND OF INGREDIENT OR COMPOUND YOU HAVE AVAILABLE, ACCUMULATES IT DOESN'T BLOW AWAY, DOESN'T GET DILUTED AT SEVEN O'CLOCK OR EIGHT O'CLOCK WHEN THE SUN COMES UP, CHEMISTRY STARTS.
YOU SAW MY LITTLE GRAPH WHERE THE, THE CHEMISTRY STARTED UP AND IT WENT DECAYED AND THE OZONE JUST GOES RIGHT UP.
EVEN THOUGH THE NOX IS GETTING SMALLER AND SMALLER AND SMALLER, THE OZONES GOING UP AND UP AND UP.
THAT'S EXACTLY WHAT HAPPENS HERE.
SO THEN NOTICE THAT THE OZONE DOESN'T GO TO ZERO AT NIGHT ON THIS ONE.
THE OZONE AT, YOU SEE IT STAYS ABOUT 15 OR SO ACROSS THERE, HUH? SO IF YOU TURNS OUT, IF YOU ADD NO FROM CARS THAT COME OUTTA THE TAILPIPE OF THE CAR, IF YOU ADD NO AND THERE'S OZONE IN THE ATMOSPHERE, BUT NO SUNLIGHT, NO AND OZONE REACT MAKE N O TWO AND THE OZONES GONE.
SO YOU CAN TELL IF YOU'RE GETTING TRANSPORT OR IF YOU'RE GETTING UM, CHEMISTRY STILL RUNNING OR NO, IF YOU HAVE ENOUGH, NO, YOU CAN TELL THAT BY LOOKING AT THE FIRST PART OF THIS.
NOTICE THAT ALL OF THOSE OZONES IN BETWEEN GO TO ZERO.
ALL THE OZONES OVER HERE DON'T GO TO ZERO.
ONE OF THE THINGS THAT'S HAPPENING IS YOU'RE, YOU'RE HAVING A LOT MORE KNOCKS IN THE AIR OVERNIGHT ON THESE FIRST THREE DAYS THAN YOU ARE ON THE OTHER SIDE.
LOOK AT THE CURVES AT THE BOTTOM.
THE BLUE IS N O AND THE RED IS N O TWO.
NOW ONE OF THE MESSAGES I WANT YOU TO GET FROM HERE, YOU GET THE SAME FRIGGING OZONE EVEN THOUGH THE NOX IS OVER 25 OR THE NOX CAN HARDLY BE TELLED OVER HERE AT 30.
NOX IS NOT DOMINATING THIS PROBLEM.
IT'S NOT CHANGING WHETHER YOU GET A HIGH OZONE OR NOT.
YOU CAN'T DO IT IF YOU DON'T HAVE NOX, BUT THE AMOUNT OF NOXS THAT'S THERE DOESN'T TELL YOU WHETHER OR NOT YOU'RE GOING TO EXCEED OR NOT EXCEED
SO DAYS WITH LOW NOX, THEY DON'T HAVE MUCH OZONE.
BUT IF YOU LOOK ACROSS THE MIDDLE THERE, SO THERE'S, SO IT'S A SUBTLE PROBLEM, YOU CAN'T, IT'S NOT A LINEAR RELATIONSHIP, IT'S WEIRD.
YOU CAN'T DO IT IF YOU DON'T HAVE IT, BUT IF YOU DO HAVE IT, IT DOESN'T NECESSARILY TELL YOU THAT YOU'RE GONNA EXCEED.
SO REDUCING KNOCKS MAY OR MAY NOT MAKE ANY DIFFERENCE AT ALL AND IN FACT IT'S HAPPENING ANYWAY.
AND IF YOU THINK YOU'RE GONNA CONTROL THIS PROBLEM BY REDUCING URINE KNOX FROM ONE SIDE OVER HERE TO THE OTHER SIDE, LOOK THE OZONES CAME OUT THE SAME ON THAT DAY.
SO IT'S PROBABLY NOT NOX THAT'S DOMINATING OR CONTROLLING.
HERE'S ANOTHER POINT ABOUT NOX.
[00:40:01]
LEMME GO BACK A MINUTE.HERE'S ANOTHER POINT ABOUT NOX.
NOX IS MADE ON THE SITE, IT'S MADE BY COMING OUT OF THE TAILPIPES.
YOU HAVE TO HAVE HEATED AIR TO MAKE KNOCKS PERIOD.
AND THAT NOX MAY GO THROUGH A CATALYST OR NOT AND BE REMOVED, BUT YOU GOTTA, YOU MAKE THE KNOCKS ON THE SITE, NOBODY IS STORING NOX AND TANKS AND PA PUMPING IT AROUND AND USING IT.
SO TRUCKS, CARS, BUSES, ALL THOSE THINGS, THEY'RE CONTRIBUTING AND THEY'RE NOT LIKELY TO CHANGE BY LARGE AMOUNTS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
SO YOU HAVE BIG VARIATIONS IN OZONE.
IT'S UNLIKELY TO BE CAUSED BY BIG VARIATIONS IN NO BECAUSE THE NO SOURCE IS PRETTY MUCH THERE ALL THE TIME.
THE VOLUME MAY BE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT, BUT WE'VE ALREADY FOUND OUT THE VOLUME DOESN'T SEEM TO MAKE MUCH DIFFERENCE ABOUT HOW MUCH OZONE YOU COULD MAKE.
THE OTHER SIDE OF THAT IS VOCS ARE ALL PRETTY MUCH LIQUIDS OR GASES.
AND NOT ONLY THAT, THE CAR MAKES A LITTLE OF IT, BUT THE CARS CONSUMING MOST OF THAT RIGHT AWAY.
WHAT'S HAPPENING IS THESE ARE TRUCKED IN, PIPED IN AND THEY'RE STORED.
SO YOU'VE GOT BIG RESERVOIRS IN VARIOUS PLACES.
A GAS STATIONS, THEY GOT, WHAT DO THEY GOT IN THE GROUND? THEY GOT LOTS OF GASOLINE.
WHAT'S THAT? A V O C, IT VOLATILIZE, IT COMES OUT.
SO THERE'S A COMPLETE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN ISSUES WITH VOCS AND ISSUES WITH NOX.
AND REMEMBER, ONE IS MADE ON THE SPOT AND YOU GOTTA BE FOUND HOW IT'S BEING MADE.
THE OTHER ONE IS THE STUFF STORED AND IT MIGHT BE STORED SOMEWHERE OR CREATED IN SUCH A WAY THAT IT'S, IT'S NOT CONNECTED WITH NOX AT ALL.
NOW THIS IS THE SORT OF CLEAR BEG WHERE YOU BEGIN TO SEE WHAT'S DIFFERENT.
THIS IS 2015 WIND QUADRANTS AND OZONE EXCEEDANCES AT BULLOCKS ON THE LEFT AND AT SAN ANTONIO NORTHWEST ON THE RIGHT FOR A WHOLE YEAR.
AND WHAT I'VE DONE ON THE PIE CHART IS HOW MANY DAYS CAME FROM ONLY ONE DIRECTION THAT'S GREEN.
SO THE WIND CAME FROM ONE DIRECTION DURING GREEN, THAT WAS 11% OR 43 DAYS.
DARK GREEN IS HOW MANY CAME FROM TWO DIRECTIONS THAT DAY AND THAT'S, UM, I CAN'T READ IT, 16 OR 19 OR SOMETHING ALONG THAT LINE.
BLUE AT THE BOTTOM IS HOW MANY CAME FROM THREE DIFFERENT DIRECTIONS DURING THE DAY AND DARK BLUE IS HOW MANY CAME FROM FOUR.
NOW ONE OF THE THINGS TO NOTICE IS MUCH OF THE VIOLATIONS RED IS AN EIGHT HOUR VIOLATION AND PURPLE IS A ONE HOUR VIOLATION.
WHAT'S A ONE HOUR VIOLATION? THAT'S WHERE IT GOES OVER A HUNDRED, BUT IT BUT IT, BUT IT MIGHT BE A VERY NARROW PLUME AND IT WENT OVER A HUNDRED.
ALL RIGHT? AND SO THE EIGHT HOUR VALUE MAY NOT HAVE EXCEEDED, BUT THE ONE HOUR VALUE WENT WAY UP.
SO YOU CAN SEE THAT MOST OF THE BIG VIOLATIONS ARE EITHER THREE OR FOUR QUADRANTS AND IT HAPPENS AT BOTH SITES.
NOW HERE YOU CAN ALSO SEE THERE WAS ONE TWO Q AND I'LL EXPLAIN THAT ONE IN A FEW MINUTES.
THAT'S THE FIRST TIME WE'VE SEEN THAT ONE.
IF YOU GO TO 2016, YOU'RE DOWN TO ONE VARIATION AT THREE AND YOU'RE DOWN TO ONE AT THREE AND ONE AT FOUR AT UM, SAN ANTONIO NORTHWEST.
THE OTHER THING TO DO IS, LET ME GO BACK, LOOK AT THE, LOOK AT THE SHIFT IN THE QUADS.
THAT ONE AND THAT ONE, THAT'S BECAUSE OF THE EL NINO.
LA NINA CHANGE IN THE NUMBER OF HIGH PRESSURE, LOW PRESSURES GOING ACROSS.
SO EVERY OTHER YEAR HAS A QUAD DIAGRAM THAT LOOKS SIMILAR AND, AND VICE VERSA.
SO YOU GET, YOU'RE GETTING A TWO YEAR SWITCH IN THE FREQUENCY OF THE WINDS JUST CAUSED BY LA NINA, EL NINA.
NOW THIS IS THE BACKUP TRAJECTORY, THIS IS THE TWO Q ONE THAT VIOLATED, IF YOU SEE A NORMAL TWO Q, IT'S THE ONE ON THIS SIDE, YOU SEE THE BLACK LINE GOING UP AND THAT'S THE WIND MIDNIGHT TO MIDNIGHT.
IF YOU GO ON THE OTHER SIDE, THE NEW TYPE WE'RE SEEING, LOOK, IT STARTS AT THE BLACK DOT, BUT THEN IT COMES SOUTH AND THEN IT TURNS AROUND INSTANTLY AND GOES BACK OVER ITSELF AND THEN GOES AWAY.
THAT MEANS THERE, I MEAN THAT WAS JUST A 180 DEGREE REVERSAL, BAM IN AN HOUR AND RIGHT BACK OVER WHERE IT CAME FROM.
WE'RE NOT, WE HAVEN'T ANALYZED EXACTLY WHAT THE METEOROLOGICAL DYNAMICS ARE THAT DO THIS, BUT YOU GUYS EXHIBIT IT, IT'S NOT EXHIBITED IN HOUSTON.
EL PASO EXHIBITS IT NOT EXHIBITED IN HOUSTON.
SO I THINK WHAT IT IS, IT'S GOT SOMETHING TO DO WITH YOUR TERRAIN AND AS YOU'RE GOING IN YOU'RE GOING UP AND IT'S GOT SOME ISSUE THAT ALLOWS THAT WE WILL EXAMINE THAT IN DETAIL AND EXPLAIN IT BETTER.
OKAY, SO SAN ANTONIO, HOUSTON, EL PASO.
NOW PEOPLE HAVE HEARD ME SAY THAT AND THEY GO, WE LOOK NOTHING LIKE HOUSTON.
WELL NO, I'M SORRY THE WIND FLOWS
[00:45:01]
LOOK VERY SIMILAR TO HOUSTON.THE NUMBER OF QUADS LOOK VERY SIMILAR.
WHAT THEY MEAN IS WE DON'T HAVE THE SAME KIND OF INVENTORY.
ABSOLUTELY TRUE, BUT THAT DOESN'T MEAN THE REST OF EVERYTHING YOU'RE DEALING WITH.
YOU'RE AT 30 DEGREES JUST LIKE THEY ARE.
YOU'RE GETTING THE SAME WIND SYSTEMS, YOU'RE DOMINATED BY THE SAME PROCESSES.
SO IT'S NOT UNEXPECTED THAT BULLAS AND IN UH, SAN ANTONIO WEST WOULD HAVE SIMILAR DISTRIBUTIONS EACH YEAR.
AND AS EXPECTED SAN ANTONIO, HOUSTON AND EL PASO HAVE SIMILAR DISTRIBUTIONS EACH YEAR.
THE DISTRIBUTIONS AMONG THE ONE Q TWO, Q THREE, Q FOUR Q CHANGE BI-ANNUALLY AS I'VE TOLD YOU.
SO THERE IS A SIMILARITY BETWEEN YOU GUYS AND HOUSTON AND SOME EXTENT WE CAN DO THAT UH, AND UNDERSTAND THAT MORE.
ALRIGHT, NOW WE'VE TALKED ABOUT THIS JUST NUMBER, HOW ABOUT THIS, WE WANNA KNOW WHAT DIRECTION DID IT COME FROM.
SO MY Q PLOTS DON'T TELL YOU IF I HAVE A TWO Q, THAT IT COULD BE COUNTING ONE THAT CAME THIS WAY AND WENT THAT WAY OR ONE THAT CAME THIS WAY AND WENT THAT WAY.
NOW I WANNA KNOW WHAT DIRECTION DID IT COME FROM WHEN THAT HAPPENED.
WE DIVIDED THE COMPASS UP INTO EIGHT PLOTS AND THOSE ARE NORTHWEST TO NORTH, NORTH TO NORTHEAST AND SO ON.
AND THEN WITHIN THOSE WE HAVE, WHETHER IT'S A ONE Q TWO, Q THREE Q OR FOUR Q DAY, THEN THE GREEN BAR MEANS NO VIOLATIONS, THE RED BAR MEANS AN EIGHT HOUR VIOLATION AND THE PURPLE BAR MEANS OH UH, EIGHT HOUR, ONE HOUR VIOLATION.
SO WHAT YOU CAN SEE ON 2012 AT THE SAN JUAN AT, AT THE SAN ANTONIO NORTHWEST MONITOR, VIRTUALLY ALL THE VIOLATIONS CAME FROM THE NORTH.
THE MORNING WINDS THAT CREATED, THOSE OZONE VIOLATIONS CAME FROM BETWEEN NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST WITH THE DOMINANT ONES COMING FROM NORTHWEST TO NORTH.
LOOKED DOWN AT THE GREEN ONES AT THE BOTTOM, MORE THAN 30 DAYS OF EACH OF THOSE PEDALS CAME FROM THE CITY SIDE.
SO NOTHING IS STARTING IN THE MORNING FROM THE CITY SIDE.
EVERYTHING STARTING IN THE MORNING FROM THE NORTHERN SIDE AT THAT MONITOR.
THEN IF YOU GO OVER ON THE OTHER SIDE AND LOOK AT BULLAS, IT'S SHIFTED.
SO WHERE IS SAN ANTONIO NORTH? IT'S OVER HERE, WHEREAS BULLAS, IT'S UP OVER HERE.
SO IF THIS IS POINTING UPWARD AND THAT ONE'S POINTING THAT WAY, YOU'RE LOOKING AT SOME TARGET THAT'S AT THE INTERSECTION OF THOSE TWO LINES HERE.
ONE, ONE COMING THAT WAY AND ONE GOING THAT WAY.
THAT'S THAT QUADRANT RIGHT ABOVE AND TO THE WEST OF BULLIS.
IT'S ABOVE SAN ANTONIO, NORTHWEST AND TO THE WEST.
SO IT'S NORTH OF THAT ONE AND EAST OF THAT ONE.
THIS SAYS, UM, SORRY, PREVIOUS ONE WAS 12, THAT'S THE MODEL YEAR.
THE NEXT ONE IS 2015 AND IT'S VERY SIMILAR BUT NOTICE THAT YOU'VE GOT VIOLATIONS COMING OUT OF THE SOUTH TOWARD SAN JUAN.
NORTHWEST BOLUS IS EVEN MORE DOMINANT TO THE NORTH AND THERE'S A FEW COMING IN FROM THE SOUTH.
UH, ON THE 16TH, LOOK, EVERYTHING SHRUNK AT SAN ANTONIO.
STILL LOTS OF WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AND ALL OF THE VIOLATIONS ARE COMING FROM ONE SINGLE NARROW LOCATION AT BULLAS.
UM, SO LET'S TURN THIS ON SLIGHTLY A DIFFERENT WAY THEN.
SO WE'RE GONNA TAKE THOSE AND SINCE THEY TELL YOU THE DIRECTION, BUT THEY DON'T TELL YOU THE DATE, WE'RE GONNA CHANGE IT SO THAT YOU SEE THE DATE.
SO WHAT'S ON THE LEFT HAND SIDE ARE THOSE SAME WEDGES EAST TO SOUTHEAST, SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH.
THOSE ARE THE MORNING DIRECTION FLOWS TO THE MONITOR.
AND THEN ALONG THE BOTTOM IS THE TIME FROM APRIL THE FIRST TO NOVEMBER THE FIRST.
AND WHAT YOU SEE IS THAT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE TIME LOOKING ALONG THOSE DARK BLACK LINES RUNNING BETWEEN SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH, THAT'S THE NORMAL CATASTROPHIC FLOW BEING DRIVEN BY THE SYSTEM.
IN ORDER TO HAVE AN OZONE VIOLATION, YOU GOTTA SHIFT THE WIND AND THE WIND HAS TO SHIFT.
AND SO THOSE VERTICAL LINES ARE SHOWING YOU WIND SHIFTS FROM THE NORMAL FLOW THE DAY BEFORE UP TO ONE OF THESE FLOWS BETWEEN NORTHWEST NO AND NORTHEAST THAT ACTUALLY CAUSE NOW YOU HAVE A BUNCH OF THOSE WHICH CAUSE NOTHING, BUT EVERY ONCE IN A WHILE YOU GET A RED DOT AND LOOK WHERE THE RED DOTS ARE.
AND SO ONE IS, ONE IS FROM UM, BULLETS ON THE RIGHT AND THE ONE ON THE LEFT IS SAN ANTONIO NORTH.
THEY SEEM TO GO TOGETHER BUT THEY'RE NOT EXACTLY REPEATABLE, BUT YOU BASICALLY, UM, PRETTY MUCH AND, AND THEY'RE SPACED WEIRDLY.
OFTEN THEY OCCUR SORT OF LIKE NEAR WEEKENDS, NOT QUITE WEEKENDS, UH, NOT QUITE INTO MONTHS.
SOMETHING'S FISHY ABOUT THE TIMING ON THOSE.
THAT WAS FOR 12, THIS IS FOR 15.
THERE'S DATA MISSING ON THE LEFT SIDE, BUT ON
[00:50:01]
THE RIGHT SIDE YOU SEE THE PATTERN AGAIN IS VERY SIMILAR.WHY ARE THEY SPREAD OUT LIKE THIS? THIS IS, YOU KNOW, WHAT'S GOING ON ON THOSE KINDS OF DAYS, NOT ONLY, AND IF YOU LOOK AT THE TOP, THE GREEN AND THE PURPLE, PURPLE DAYS ARE ALL POSSIBLE DAYS, BUT NOTHING HAPPENED ON THOSE DAYS.
SO WHAT'S GOING ON THAT YOU HAVE THESE DAYS? YOU COULD HAVE HAD PROBLEMS BUT YOU DON'T.
AND THEN YOU HAVE THESE DAYS AND YOU DO HAVE PROBLEMS. UM, SO WE KEEP GOING NOW I'M DOING IT ANOTHER DIFFERENT WAY.
WHAT'S ACROSS THE BOTTOM IS HOW FAR DID THE WIND TRAVEL IN THE MORNING TO GET TO THE SITE AND ON THE LEFT HAND SIDE IS WHAT WAS THE SITE'S OZONE FINALLY.
SO THIS IS AN OZONE VERSUS MORNING DISTANCE SCATTER PLOT.
AND THEN THE DOTS ARE COLORED ACCORDING TO WHETHER IT CAME FROM THE NORTH OR CAME FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST OR CAME FROM ALL THESE DIFFERENT DIRECTIONS.
AND WHAT YOU SEE IS THAT THE HIGHEST OZONE AT ONE HOUR WAS ON UM, 6 27.
IT CAME FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST.
THE DISTANCE WAS PROBABLY TWO KILOMETERS THAT IT TRAVELED THAT MORNING TO GET THERE.
THEN THE SECOND ONE WAS THE ONE THAT'S RED AND THE DATES WRITTEN ON THAT.
AND YOU CAN TELL ALL OF THIS IS UNDER 20.
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THESE ISSUES ARE UNDER 20 KILOMETERS.
SO YOU'RE NOT LOOKING AT MEXICO, IT'S WRONG DIRECTION.
YOU'RE NOT EVEN LOOKING AT SOME OF THE OTHER STATES WRONG DIRECTION.
YOU'RE NOT LOOKING AT AT AT UH, AUSTIN, YOU'RE NOT LOOKING AT HOUSTON.
WHAT ARE YOU LOOKING AT? YOU'RE LOOKING AT SOMETHING OVER THERE.
NOW IT VARIES FROM YEAR TO YEAR 'CAUSE THE FLOWS OBVIOUSLY VARY.
SO THERE'S SOMETHING WEIRD ABOUT 2012, I HAVEN'T INVESTIGATED THIS IN ENOUGH DETAIL YET, BUT ALL OF A SUDDEN YOU'RE GETTING TRAVEL DISTANCES AT BULLS THAT ARE OUT TO 50 AND THEY'RE ALL IN BLUE.
SO THEY ALL COME FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST, BUT THEY DISAPPEAR THE NEXT YEAR AND THEY DIDN'T APPEAR IN 12.
SO THAT AS YOU KEEP, IF WE KEEP DOING THIS, YOU'LL SEE YOU, YOU GO BACK ON 15 AND IT'S ALL SQUEEZED BACK UNDER 30 AGAIN.
SO WE'LL GO THROUGH THAT ONE AND OKAY, I WANNA GO TO THIS PIECE.
ALRIGHT, SO TCE Q'S CAMX MODEL HAS 152 DAY SCENARIO FOR 2012.
THAT'S THE CURRENT MODEL THAT THEY'RE USING THAT A LOT OF PEOPLE HAVE USED TESTED THAT ACOG IS USING AND SO ON.
SO THAT MODEL, UH, WAS SIM WAS NESTED GRIDS.
IT'S LIKELY TO BE USED BY T C E Q, UH, OR SOMETHING VERY CLOSE TO IT.
ITS HIGHEST RESOLUTION IS A FOUR K CELL EXTENDING FROM WEST OF SAN ANTONIO ALL THE WAY OVER TO THE OTHER SIDE OF HOUSTON.
SO IT'S A BIG GIANT FOUR K GRID AND ALL THE DATA IS IN THERE AND WE CAN PULL OUT ANY MONITOR OR ANYTHING IN THERE AND LOOK AT WHAT IT SAYS.
SO BOTH ACOG HAVE RUN THOSE AND SO HAS, UM, ALPINE GEOPHYSICS IS A GROUP WE SPEND A LOT OF TIME WORKING WITH.
THEY'VE DONE THE WORK IN HOUSTON.
THE, WE WERE UNABLE TO GET THE DATA FROM ACOG IN TIME FOR ME TO FINISH BEFORE MY CONTRACT RAN OUT.
AND I DON'T LIKE WORKING WHEN I'M NOT BEING PAID.
UM, AND SO, SO I GOT THE DATA FROM ALPINE GEOPHYSICS, BUT I GOT IT FOR HOUSTON.
SO I'M GONNA DEMO WHAT'S GOING ON IN THIS MODEL IN HOUSTON AND I ALMOST TOTALLY POSITIVELY GUARANTEE YOU WHAT'S GOING ON IN THE MODEL IN SAN ANTONIO.
I WILL KNOW THAT IN THE NEXT MONTH OR SO, BUT I DON'T KNOW THAT YET.
SO HERE I'VE TAKEN THE MONITOR OBSERVATIONS FROM 2012 AND I'VE EXTRACTED THAT DATA AND I'VE USED IT.
THIS BLACK BAR AROUND HERE IS A FOUR KILOMETER GRID AND SITTING IN THE MIDDLE OF IT BELOW THE BOTTOM HALF IS THE SHIP CHANNEL AND THE TOP HALF IS RESIDENTIAL AREAS, SHOWS THE GRID'S GENERALIZED, UH, AND THEN THE LITTLE GOLD THING IN THE MIDDLE IS WHERE THE MONITOR IS.
SO WE GET ALL THE DATA, YOU GET ONE NUMBER FOR THAT WHOLE GRID, FOR EVERY HOUR FOR EVERY SPECIES, AND THEN YOU GET THE WINDS FROM THE BOTTOM AND FROM THE LEFT.
SO IF YOU TAKE THAT AND TREAT IT JUST LIKE YOU TREAT OBSERVATIONAL DATA.
SO HERE ON THE LEFT IS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR THE H O THREE MONITOR.
AND ON THE RIGHT IS MODEL DATA FOR THE NUMBER OF WIND DAYS IN EACH QUAD AND FOR THE NUMBER OF VIOLATIONS.
AND WHAT YOU SEE IS THE MODEL HAS MORE VIOLATIONS THAN THE REAL WORLD HAS.
WHOA, NOT ONLY THAT, THE MODEL HAS HUGE DIFFERENCES IN THE WIND FLOW COMPARED TO WHAT THE REAL WORLD HAS.
WE'LL GO TO CLINTON A DIFFERENT MONITOR AND IT'S THE SAME STORY.
SO IF WE SUMMARIZE THAT ONE, THERE'S 152 DAYS.
THERE WERE ACTUALLY FIVE VIOLATIONS.
FOUR, FOUR Q AND ONE, THREE Q.
[00:55:01]
152 DAYS, BUT AS YOU CAN SEE RIGHT AWAY WHERE WE HAD 11 ONE, THEY HAVE 32.SO THEY HAVE A LOT OF BLOW THROUGH DAYS IN THEIR MODEL AND SO ON.
THEY MADE A 22 DAY ERROR IN THE NUMBER OF DAYS WITH THE RIGHT WINDS AND THEY MADE A SIX DAY EXTRA VIOLATION AT THE HOUSTON MONITOR.
THEY MADE A SEVEN DAY EXTRA VIOLATION AND THEY'RE 27 DAYS WRONG IN THE WAY THE WINDS WORKED THAT DAY.
SO FURTHER INVESTIGATION OF THIS SIMULATION IS PLANNED.
OBVIOUSLY WE'RE GONNA REALLY TALK TO T C Q, WE'RE GOING TO WORK ON A LOT OF OTHER STUFF AND TRY AND HOUSTON'S EXTREMELY INTERESTED.
I EXPECT TO SEE EXACTLY THE SAME KIND OF RESULTS HERE AND I CAN TELL YOU THAT PROBABLY IN ANOTHER MONTH WHAT'S COMMON IN THE MODEL IS WHAT'S CALLED A COMPENSATING ERROR.
ALL THE PIECES ARE THERE AND THEY ALL HAVE TOOLS AND THEY ALL WORK, BUT WHEN YOU STICK THE PIECES TOGETHER, THIS ONE WAS TOO LOW AND THIS ONE WAS TOO HIGH.
AND WHEN YOU ADD 'EM TOGETHER, THEY GET THE RIGHT ANSWER, BUT FOR THE WRONG REASONS.
AND THAT WAS THE NUMBER ONE QUOTATION OF THE MAN WHO HEADED THE E P A LAB MODELING DEVELOPMENT GROUP.
HE STARTED EVERY PRESENTATION SAYING IT'S VERY IMPORTANT THAT MODELS GET THE RIGHT ANSWER, BUT FOR THE RIGHT REASONS.
NOW THIS IS A CASE WHERE NO, THAT'S NOT GONNA HAPPEN.
WE DON'T EVEN KNOW, I WILL TELL YOU, BUT WE DON'T EVEN KNOW WHAT THE FOURTH HIGHEST VALUE WOULD BE THAT THEY WOULD ACTUALLY CALCULATE A CONTROL VALUE FROM AND YOU KNOW, AN EIGHT HOUR AVERAGE VALUE FROM IN ORDER TO GET YOU TO A DESIGN VALUE.
SO THERE'S SOME ISSUES THAT HAVE TO BE RESOLVED IF YOU'RE GONNA DO THAT.
FURTHERMORE, NOAH, NASA HAD ALREADY DONE A BUNCH OF RESEARCH VERY RECENTLY AND THEY FOUND BASED ON SATELLITES AND OTHER MEASUREMENTS ON THE GROUND AND OTHER THINGS THEY'VE DONE RUNNING THAT RUNNING NOT THIS PARTICULAR MODEL, BUT RUNNING ESSENTIALLY THE SAME MODEL.
THEY FOUND AN OVERESTIMATION OF NOX AND CO V EMISSIONS FROM VEHICLES.
THE OLD MODEL IS USING A SYSTEM THAT WAS DEVELOPED, UH, PART OF THE N E I, THE NATIONAL INVENTORY SYSTEM DEVELOPED BY A P A OVER TIME.
THE NOAA NASA PEOPLE USE WHAT'S CALLED A FUEL BASED INVENTORY THAT THEY'VE DEVELOPED.
THEY ACTUALLY LOOK AT HOW MUCH FUEL IS BEING CONSUMED IN EACH SPACE IN, IN COUNTY AND WHATEVER.
AND THEY'VE GOT MARVELOUS DATA TO CONVERT FUEL CONSUMED INTO NOX AND CO.
AND WHAT THEY FIND OUT IS THE MODEL'S OVER PREDICTING BOTH.
SO SOMETHING'S WRONG WITH THE INVENTORY PIECE OF THE MODEL AT EVERYBODY IN THE UNITED STATES IS USING.
SO THIS IS GONNA GET A LOT OF ATTENTION FROM A LOT MORE PEOPLE.
ALRIGHT, REACTIVE SOURCE AREAS.
I'M WITHIN TWO OR THREE SLIDES OF FINISHING.
THE LOW FREQUENCY OF PRODUCING OZONE AS DEMONSTRATED BY THE SMALL RATIO OF EIGHT X OR NINE X DAYS, THAT'S, THAT IS A VIOLATION OF THE EIGHT HOUR STANDARD OR A VIOLATION OF THE NINE ONE HOUR STANDARD.
UH, COMPARED TO THE MUCH LARGER NUMBER OF THREE Q FOUR Q NECESSARY DAYS FOR MAKING OZONE IMPLIES THAT THERE'S A LIMIT ON THE SUFFICIENT CAUSES OF THOSE VIOLATIONS.
THAT IS, THE REACTIVE INGREDIENTS ARE NOT AVAILABLE OFTEN ENOUGH UNDER THREE Q FOUR Q CONDITIONS TO ACTUALLY RESULT IN MORE XS.
THE SUFFICIENT CAUSES MUST BE NOX OR VOCS THAT ARE NOT RAPIDLY DISPERSED BY THE ONE Q OR TWO Q WINDS.
NOW FURTHER, THE STRENGTH OF THE NOX SOURCE IS HIGHLY REPEATABLE AS MORNING AND EVENING TRAFFIC AND HEAVY DUTY TRUCKS, THE NOX IS MADE BY PRODUCT OF THESE ACTIVITIES.
VOCS, ON THE OTHER HAND, ARE MOSTLY BOUGHT IN, BROUGHT IN AS LIQUID OR GAS AND STORED.
SO THEY'RE AVAILABLE AND THEY CAN BE VENTED OR LEAKED TO THE ATMOSPHERE, WHICH IS EXACTLY THE SITUATION THAT WAS IN HOUSTON.
I'M NOT SAYING THAT'S YOUR SITUATION.
I'M DESCRIBING IN GENERAL THE ORIGINS AND HANDLING OF VOCS AS OPPOSED TO NOX BEING CREATED BY THE MOTOR VEHICLES.
SO THE BIGGEST REMAINING ISSUE Y'ALL HAVE IS THIS.
ARE YOU GONNA BE NO CONTROLLED? ARE YOU GONNA BE V O C CONTROLLED? ARE YOU GONNA DO SOMETHING IN BETWEEN? THE BIGGEST ISSUE IS WHAT ARE THE V O C LEVELS AND WHAT ARE THEIR SOURCES? AND WHY IN THE HELL ARE THEY IN THE NORTHWEST FOR THOSE MONITORS IN VIOLATION? NOW, THERE'S NO V O C MEASUREMENTS FOR 2012 WHEN THE MODEL WAS RUN.
WE WON'T HAVE ANY MEASUREMENTS FOR THOSE V O C MEASUREMENTS, SPECIATED, OR AVAILABLE FOR PART OF 2016 AT BULLAS.
ONE COMMENT MADE BY E P A THAT SHOWED A LOT OF ICE SUPREME MUST BE COMING FROM TREES.
UM, NOT SATISFIED WITH THAT MODEL.
VOCS ARE BASED ON GET THIS MODEL.
[01:00:01]
OZONE SEASON AVERAGE VALUES.SO THEY'RE GOING IN WITH WHAT THE INVENTORY IS BEING REPORTED OVER THE WHOLE PERIOD.
WE TRIED IN HOUSTON TO DO WHAT WAS CALLED A SPECIAL INVENTORY.
WE WANTED THE INDUSTRY, EVERY SINGLE INDUSTRY HAD TO REPORT EVERY SIX HOURS.
WHAT THE HELL? THEY WERE REMITTING FOR A YEAR.
YOU KNOW HOW MANY PEOPLE WERE MAD? THEY DID IT FOR ONE YEAR.
WHAT IT SHOWS IS HUGE DIFFERENCES ON A DAY AT A PARTICULAR LOCATION COMPARED TO THE ANNUAL AVERAGE.
AND IF YOU PUT THE MODEL, IF YOU PUT THE ANNUAL AVERAGE IN AND YOU MISS ALL OF THESE SPECIFIC, MAYBE IT'S THOSE CONDITIONS THAT ARE ACTUALLY CAUSING THE VIOLATIONS ON THESE OPTIONAL OPTIMAL DAYS.
SO WHAT WE FOUND WAS, IF YOU'RE GONNA FIND THESE, YOU GOTTA HAVE SOMETHING THAT COULD SEE 'EM.
IT AIN'T AN AUTO GC, IT'S NOT A CANISTER.
CANISTER AUTO GC DRAWS, DRAWS ABOUT 10 SECONDS TO 20, MAYBE NOT EVEN A MINUTE WORTH OF AIR AND SPENDS AN HOUR ANALYZING IT.
SO YOU GET A GRAB SAMPLE EVERY MINUTE, AND IF SOMETHING HAPPENED AT HALFWAY THROUGH, YOU DON'T SEE IT AT ALL.
OKAY? THE OTHER CHOICE IS YOU SUCK IT ALL IN AND HOLD IT, BUT YOU HOLD IT FOR A WEEK AND YOU ONLY GET ONE EVERY FOUR DAYS.
SO YOU DON'T HAVE ENOUGH INFORMATION ABOUT VOCS.
YOU SURE CAN'T TRUST THE INVENTORIES AND YOU DON'T HAVE ENOUGH AUTO GCS.
AND IF YOU DID, IT WOULDN'T MAKE ANY DIFFERENCE ANYWAY.
SO WHAT YOU'RE SHORT ON IS YOU DON'T KNOW NOTHING ABOUT YOUR VOCS, REALLY, YOU KNOW, ALL THE AVERAGE ANNUAL STUFF, BUT YOU KNOW NOTHING ABOUT DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION IN THOSE CONDITIONS.
SO WHAT DO YOU DO? THIS CAMERA? LET ME, I'M, I'M GONNA GO TO THE FIRST NEXT ONE.
YOU PUT A CAMERA LIKE I'M GONNA SHOW YOU ON A HELICOPTER BELONGING TO THE, UH, HOUSTON POLICE DEPARTMENT, WHICH HAD NO AUTHORITY TO FLY OVER THESE, BUT WHO WERE SO MAD ABOUT WHAT WAS GOING ON.
EVERY BLACK PLUME YOU SEE HERE IS TOTALLY INVISIBLE, BUT GUESS WHAT? THEY'RE VOCS.
THEY'RE COMING OUTTA THE TANKS.
THEY WERE LEAKING ALL THE TIME.
THIS IS FOUR, FIVE, OR SIX TANKS.
NOT ONLY THAT, THE BARGES ARE LEAKING.
NOT ONLY THAT, THE COMPANIES ARE LEAKING.
SO ONCE YOU DID ALL OF THIS AND IT BECAME SO OBVIOUS, GUESS WHAT? ALL THE COMPANIES BOUGHT CAMERAS WHO COULD AFFORD IT.
AND THEY WENT OUT AND THEY FIXED IT ALL.
'CAUSE GUESS WHAT? THE COAST GUARD'S IN CHARGE OF THE BARGES.
SO THE COMPANIES FORCED THE BARGES TO DO SOMETHING OR YOU CAN'T HAUL MY PRODUCT.
HERE'S HOW T C Q SOLVE THIS PROBLEM.
THEY GOT CAMERAS, BUT INSTEAD OF ENTERING INTO COURT FIGHTS AND SO FORTH, THEY WOULD DRIVE UP AND DOWN THE FENCE LINE, SPOT IT, GET IT ON THE CAMERA, GO UP, KNOCK ON THE DOOR AND SAY, YOU SEE THIS? AND THE GUY GOES, HUH, I DIDN'T KNOW WE WERE DOING THAT.
UM, AND SO YOU CAN, BUT YOU, IF YOU DON'T SEE IT, YOU CAN'T DO ANYTHING ABOUT IT.
THIS CAMERA IS A HUNDRED THOUSAND DOLLARS.
IT CAN SEE ALL KINDS OF THINGS.
THE FIRST DEMO I EVER SAW OF IT, THE GUY CAME OUT, HE TOOK HIS TOE, HE SCRATCHED ON THE CARPET, HE SCRATCHED HIS INITIALS ON THE CARPET, TURNED THE CAMERA DOWN, YOU CAN READ 'EM.
SO, AND SOUTHWEST IS DOING A TON OF RESEARCH IN THIS.
THEY HAVE CAMERAS, THEY'RE DOING ALL KINDS OF WORK.
WE'RE TALKING YESTERDAY TO THEM ABOUT PUTTING 'EM ON DRONES AND HAVING DRONES FLY AROUND AND TELL YOU, OH, ALL THESE GUYS ARE DOING, AND AGAIN, YOU COULDN'T GET THIS OUT OF THEIR INVENTORY.
THEY DON'T KNOW, THEY DON'T COUNT THIS STUFF.
THEY DON'T KNOW WHAT THE FUGITIVES ARE.
AND SO THEY TELL YOU THE SORT OF ANNUAL INPUT OUTPUT AND STUFF LIKE THIS, AND YOU COULDN'T GO.
YOU DO NOT HAVE, AS FAR AS I KNOW, THE AUTHORITY TO SAY, I'M GONNA WALK INTO YOUR PROPERTY AND I'M GONNA TAKE A CAMERA AND GO AROUND AND LOOK AT ALL THE PLACES WHERE YOU'RE HAVING PROBLEMS. UM, THAT DOESN'T WORK EITHER.
AND ALREADY THE LAWYERS FOR THESE COMPANIES IN HOUSTON HAVE FIGURED OUT HOW TO WRITE UP THE REPORT IN VERY CAREFUL TERMS, UH, TO GET THROUGH THIS.
SO YOU NEED YOUR OWN TOOL THAT CAN GO ANYWHERE AT ANY TIME AND SEE WHAT YOU CAN SEE.
NOW, YOU DON'T DO IT ALL THE TIME.
WHAT'S HAPPENING IS, YOU KNOW, AT CERTAIN KINDS OF PERIODS THINGS ARE HAPPENING.
OR IF YOU SEE A VIOLATION, YOU START GOING UP THERE AND YOU, YOU SEND UP ALL KINDS OF PEOPLE WHO'VE BEEN TRAINED ON THE CAMERA.
IT DOESN'T TAKE A LOT TO LEARN HOW TO DO THIS.
SO I'M GOING TO TAKE A LOOK AT BULLETS.
WHAT THE HECK IS GOING ON IN BULLS? SO THAT LITTLE RED LINE DOWN THERE WITH A LITTLE SQUARE ON IT, THAT'S THE MONITOR AT BULLAS.
WHAT DO YOU THINK THAT TERRITORY IS TO THE NORTH? THAT'S THE CAMP.
SO THE MONITOR IS WITHIN ABOUT 200 FEET OF THE EDGE OF CAMP BULLIS.
AND THEN BEYOND THAT, I'VE WRITTEN A LITTLE RED, I MEAN WRITTEN A LITTLE YELLOW THING.
AND THEN I CALL THESE ARE THESE FIELDS.
WELL, I WAS TOLD, IF YOU GO ZOOM IN, YOU LOOK ON THE RIGHT, GUESS
[01:05:01]
WHAT THAT IS? THAT'S AN ALGAE POND.IT'S A WASTE TREATMENT PLANT FACILITY FOR BULLIS.
WHAT'S THAT THING AT THE TOP UP THERE? IT'S A DIGESTER.
WHAT DO YOU DO? YOU PUT WASTE IN IT, BACTERIA IN IT, AND YOU STIR IT AND STIR IT AND STIR IT.
AND THEY CONVERT ALL OF THAT WASTE INTO GASES AND A BUNCH OF OTHER THINGS.
LIKE WHAT? WHY DO YOU SMELL WASTE TREATMENT PLANTS? BECAUSE THEY HAVE VOCS
THIS IS WITHIN, THIS IS A TOTALLY IR IRRESPONSIBLE PLACEMENT OF AN AIR QUALITY MONITOR.
I'VE NEVER SEEN ONE LIKE THIS.
I DON'T KNOW WHY THEY DID THIS.
AND BULLIS HAS BEEN MOVED ONCE, BUT THIS THING'S BEEN HERE.
NOW IF YOU, YOU CAN'T SEE THIS FROM THE MONITOR.
YOU HAVE TO GO UP THE BERM AND, AND GET ON THE PROPERTY AND LOOK.
NOW, I WAS TOLD BY ONE MEMBER TODAY THAT THEY THOUGHT WHAT I WAS CALLING FIELDS ARE ACTUALLY SHEETING RANGES,
SO YOU DEFINITELY DON'T WANT TO GO CLIMBING UP THE HILL TO TAKE A LOOK AT THOSE.
ALRIGHT, SO WHAT'S GOING ON? YOU GOTTA HAVE ROTATING WINDS IF YOU'RE GONNA HAVE EXCEEDANCES, PERIOD HYPOTHESIZE THAT REACTIVE SOURCE AREAS ARE SOURCES OF SUFFICIENT V O C.
THESE ARE STRONGLY SUPPORTED BY MORNING WIND DIRECTION AND TRAVEL DISTANCE SCATTER PLOTS.
MORNING WIND DIRECTIONS AT BULL SITE ARE FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST, NORTHWEST NORTH, AND AT DOWN AT SAN ANTONIO, UH, NORTHWEST THERE FROM THE NORTHWEST NORTH ON EIGHT HOUR AND NINE HOUR EXCEEDANCE STAYS ARE, AND THEY'RE ALMOST RARE FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH SITE.
POORLY SITE POOR N O X CORRELATION WITH SITE ONE HOUR AND ONE HOUR PEAKS.
IN OTHER WORDS, IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT YOUR DAYS OF VIOLATION OR CAUSE THERE'S SOME KIND OF EXTRA N O X THERE.
WE'VE GOT LOTS OF DAYS THAT HAVE BIG VIOLATIONS THAT DON'T HAVE A LOT OF EXTRA N O X, AND YOU HAVE OTHER DAYS THAT HAVE LOTS OF N O X AND THEY DON'T HAVE VIOLATIONS.
SO IT'S HARDLY LIKELY THAT THAT'S THE CASE.
THEN THE MODEL INCORRECTLY OVER PREDICTS EXCEEDANCE DAYS AND ONE QUADRANT TWO QUADRANT WINDS, WHICH WE'VE SHOWN ARE DIS DISCRIMIN BIG DISCRIMINATING FACTORS IN DECIDING WHETHER TO HAVE OR NOT HAVE AN EXCEEDANCE.
AND IF YOU COMPARE TWO HOUSTON SITES WITH THE MODEL, IT SHOWS SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE DISTRIBUTION OF WINDS AND IN OZONE EXCEEDANCES BY SIX AND SEVEN MORE DAYS.
OKAY,
IS EVERYBODY STILL WITH US? YEP.
SO I WANTED TO SHARE MY KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM WHAT WE JUST HEARD.
ONE, OZONE IS MESSY, UNPREDICTABLE, AND DIFFICULT.
I HAVE LEARNED THAT OVER THE LAST TWO MONTHS.
UH, TWO, WE OFTEN TALK ABOUT THE FACT THAT YOU NEED NOX VOCS AND SUNLIGHT SLASH HEAT IN ORDER TO MAKE OZONE.
WE NEED TO ADD AIR TO THE OAK TO WIND TO THE, UH, YEP.
UM, WE CAN LEARN A LOT ABOUT OZONE FROM HOUSTON AND EL PASO BECAUSE OUR WINDS ARE SIMILAR AND KNOX IS NOT DOMINATING OZONE FORMATION.
KNOX IS PRETTY CONSISTENT AND STABLE.
UH, YET WE HAVE PEAKS OF OZONE.
SO WE NEED TO LOOK AT VOCS AS A RESULT.
GENERALLY SPEAKING ON OZONE, EXCEEDANCE STAYS, THE WIND IS BLOWING FROM NORTH NORTHWEST AND NOT FROM VERY FAR.
AND WE NEED TO IDENTIFY, UH, WHERE THERE MIGHT BE V O C SOURCES IN THAT AREA OF THE CITY.
SO THAT IS, UM, KIND OF MY KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM DR.
I WANNA REALLY QUICKLY GO THROUGH, UH, WHERE WE ARE AS A CITY IN OUR PLANNING EFFORTS.
SO IF WE COULD HAVE THAT SLIDE COME UP.
UM, SO WE ARE WORKING ON AN OZONE ACTION PLAN, AND THAT PLAN HAS, UM, WHAT I'M CALLING SEVEN BUCKETS.
AND YOU CAN SEE THOSE BUCKETS THERE.
WE HAVE, UM, AN INTERNAL WORKING GROUP, WHICH I VERY LITERALLY AM CALLING THE GETTING TO 70 WORK GROUP, BECAUSE REMEMBER, THAT'S OUR GOAL.
UM, WE MEET ONCE A WEEK AND WE HAVE DEVELOPED, YOU HAVE AT YOUR, UM, TABLE IN FRONT OF YOU A VERY, UH, HIGH LEVEL OVERVIEW OF THE PLAN THAT WE ARE DEVELOPING RIGHT NOW.
SO YOU CAN SEE FOR EACH OF THE BUCKETS OF WORK, UM, SOME OF THE HIGH LEVEL ACTION STEPS THAT WE WILL BE TAKING.
[01:10:01]
AND WHO'S RESPONSIBLE FOR THAT? THIS WILL FORM THE BASIS OF THE VERY IN DEPTH PLAN THAT I OWE YOU IN MARCH.I THINK THAT'S PROBABLY GOOD FOR THAT.
UM, OH, OH, SOME OF THE THINGS THAT WE'VE ALREADY DONE.
UM, EVERY SINGLE DEPARTMENT IN THE CITY OF SAN ANTONIO HAS UPDATED THEIR OZONE ACTION PLAN.
AND, UM, WE ARE CURRENTLY REVIEWING THOSE TO IDENTIFY SOME, UM, SOME OPPORTUNITIES FOR SYNERGY BETWEEN DIFFERENT DEPARTMENTS.
WE WE WANTED TO GET THIS OUT OF THE GATE RIGHT AWAY BECAUSE WE'RE GONNA BE ASKING BUSINESSES.
WE'RE NOT GOING TO BE REGULATING.
WE'RE GOING TO BE ASKING BUSINESSES, UM, TO HELP US WITH THIS.
AND WE WANTED TO MAKE SURE THAT THE CITY OF SAN ANTONIO WAS WALKING THE WALK AND LEADING THE WAY.
AND SO THAT'S WHY WE PUT THIS TOGETHER FIRST RIGHT OUT OF THE GATE.
UM, WE'VE ALSO DONE A LOT OF WORK.
YOU'VE HEARD ABOUT THE VW SETTLEMENT AND, UM, SO I WON'T GO INTO ANY DETAILS ABOUT THAT, BUT THAT'S SOMETHING ELSE ELSE THAT WE FOCUSED A LOT ON OVER THIS LAST MONTH.
WE'VE HAD MEETINGS WITH BUSINESS GROUPS.
WE'VE HAD PRESENTATIONS BY T C E Q ON WHAT DOES IT MEAN TO BE IN NON-ATTAINMENT? WHAT DO YOU HAVE TO DO TO GET TO ATTAINMENT? WHAT DOES THE VW SETTLEMENT LOOK LIKE? UM, I HAVE HAD MY, UM, MONTHLY MEETINGS WITH THE E P A, WITH T C E Q.
WE'RE STARTING, UM, THIS MONTH WITH MONTHLY MEETINGS BETWEEN THE CITY AND THE COUNTY BECAUSE THIS IS A CITY COUNTY PROBLEM.
AND, UH, WE'VE RELIED A LOT ON ACOG TO LEAD THE WAY ON AIR QUALITY.
BUT ACOG IS A REGIONAL ENTITY, AND THIS IS A CITY COUNTY PROBLEM.
SO WE ARE GONNA BE WORKING TOGETHER TO MAKE SURE THAT WE'RE IN LOCKSTEP IN THE SOLUTIONS FOR THIS.
UH, WE, BECAUSE OF THE FINDINGS FROM DR.
JEFFRIES RESEARCH AND ONE OF HIS KEY FINDINGS THAT WE NEED TO IDENTIFY THE SOURCES OF VOCS, UH, I THINK LATER TODAY WE ARE ISSUING AN R F I AND ASKING EXPERTS TO TELL US WHAT THEY WOULD DO IN ORDER TO IDENTIFY AND MITIGATE V O C SOURCES.
SO THAT WILL GIVE US BETTER INFORMATION ABOUT HOW TO ACTUALLY CRAFT AN R F P TO BRING SOMEBODY IN AND START TO HELP US IDENTIFY THIS.
AGAIN, WE'VE GOT THIS NICE PERIOD BETWEEN NOW AND MARCH WHERE IT ISN'T OZONE SEASON.
SO WE'RE GONNA USE THIS OPPORTUNITY TO GET EVERYTHING READY TO GO SO THAT WE CAN START, UM, TO MITIGATE SOME OF THESE SOURCES AS SOON AS OZONE SEASON STARTS.
UM, ALSO, DOUG AND I ARE CONTINUING TO WORK REALLY CLOSELY ON THE SYNERGY BETWEEN OZONE ATTAINMENT AND CLIMATE ACTION.
A LOT OF, UH, WHAT HAPPENS IN ONE AFFECTS THE OTHER, AND WE WANNA MAKE SURE THAT WE STAY ON THE SAME PAGE.
SO, AS FAR AS NEXT STEPS GO, UM, AGAIN, I OWE YOU A PLAN ON IN MARCH, AND WE WANNA MAKE SURE WHEN WE'RE DEVELOPING THAT PLAN, THAT WE'RE GETTING STAKEHOLDER INPUT, UM, THAT WE'RE COMMUNICATING REALLY CLEARLY ABOUT THIS.
I GO BACK TO MY FIRST POINT ABOUT DR.
OZONE IS MESSY, UNPREDICTABLE, AND DIFFICULT.
DEVELOP A COMMUNICATIONS PLAN AROUND THAT.
UM, SO WE'RE REALLY GONNA BE FOCUSING ON THAT SO THAT WE CAN HELP MAKE SENSE OF THIS.
UH, VW ISS GONNA BE A HUGE PRIORITY FOR US.
WE'RE ALSO LOOKING AT WHAT WE CALL BEST IN CLASS CITIES, CITIES WHO'VE MADE REALLY GREAT PROGRESS ON REDUCING THEIR OZONE.
WHAT ARE THEY DOING? WHAT CAN WE LEARN FROM THEM? WHAT CAN WE STEAL FROM THEM AND HOW CAN WE REPLICATE WHAT THEY HAVE DONE? UM, WE'RE CONTINUING TO LOOK FOR FUNDING SOURCES TO BE ABLE TO, YOU KNOW, BUY A HUNDRED THOUSAND DOLLARS CAMERA, FOR EXAMPLE, UM, AND LOOK FOR GRANT OPPORTUNITIES TO FUND SOME OF THE WORK THAT WE NEED TO DO AROUND OZONE.
REALLY, REALLY WORKING HARD TO HAVE BUSINESSES BE SHOULDER TO SHOULDER WITH US ON THIS SO THAT, UM, WE DON'T HAVE TO GET TO THE POINT WHERE WE'RE RIDING AROUND IN POLICE HELICOPTERS AND FILMING THINGS THAT PEOPLE DON'T WANT US TO FILM.
WE REALLY DO WANT THIS TO BE, UM, A A SHOULDER TO SHOULDER.
WE'RE WORKING TOGETHER BECAUSE WE UNDERSTAND IT'S IN EVERYBODY'S BEST INTEREST TO GET, UM, OUT OF MARGINAL NON-ATTAINMENT AND BACK INTO ATTAINMENT.
UH, AND THEN AGAIN, OUR PRIMARY FOCUS IS IDENTIFYING IN MITIGATION, MITIGATING BOTH NOX AND VOCS.
SO THAT IS THE END OF THE PRESENTATION, AND DR.
JEFFRIES AND I ARE AVAILABLE FOR QUESTIONS.
JEFFRIES, ALSO FOR THE PRESENTATION.
UM, I FEEL LIKE I GOT A DEGREE IN ABOUT AN HOUR
[01:15:01]
THAT.UM, YOU KNOW, IT'S, IT'S PRETTY REMARKABLE HOW FAR, UH, THE TESTING, UH, HAS COME IN THE LAST, YOU KNOW, EVEN DECADE IN TERMS OF OUR, THE PRECISION WHICH WE CAN IDENTIFY WHAT THE SOURCES OF OUR OZONE ISSUES ARE.
UM, FOR ME, IT, IT, IT'S, IT'S NOT ENTIRELY USEFUL TO GET TOO FAR IN THE WEEDS, BUT TO REMIND ME OF WHAT MY ROLE IS IN THIS WHOLE SITUATION.
AND THAT IS, UH, MORE AKIN TO WHAT DR.
BRIDGER IS DOING, WHICH IS THAT OUR BOTTOM LINE IS THAT WE'RE TRYING TO PROTECT COMMUNITY HEALTH, UH, AND THAT OUR STRATEGY, UH, AS THE TOOLS GET MORE PRECISE AND WE IDENTIFY HOW WE CAN MEASURE BETTER AND UNDERSTAND SOURCING BETTER, UH, IS TO ALWAYS EXCEED WHAT THE MINIMUM REQUIREMENTS ARE, UH, OF THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT.
AND AGAIN, KNOWING THAT, UH, THE ORIGIN OF THIS CONVERSATION IS NOT BECAUSE THERE'S SOME TROPHY TO BE GIVEN FOR AIR QUALITY, IT'S BECAUSE WE HAVE FEWER DEATHS AND FEWER SICKNESSES IN OUR COMMUNITY WHEN WE DO THAT.
SO, UM, I DON'T REALLY HAVE ANY QUESTIONS.
UM, YOU KNOW, I, I WOULD LIKE TO GET UPDATED AS THE R F I TURNS INTO AN R F P, UH, AND THEN CERTAINLY AS WE GET INTO THE SPRING WITH THE, WITH THE FINALITY OF THE REPORT.
UH, BUT I JUST WANT TO THANK YOU FOR HAVING THE, UH, WHEREWITHAL IN THE PATIENTS TO BRING SUCH A DIFFICULT TOPIC TO US IN THIS FORUM.
I RECEIVED SOME TEXTS FROM MY COLLEAGUES WHILE I WAS HERE.
I WON'T READ THEM, BUT THEY BASICALLY SAID, YOU MUST BE LOVING THIS AND, UH, THIS IS ALL YOUR FAULT, OR, OR SOMETHING LIKE THAT.
BUT, UH, THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR THE PRESENTATION, UH, DR.
UM, AND LIKE THE MAYOR SAID, THANK YOU FOR COMING TO, TO HELP US UNDERSTAND THIS AND HELP US UNDERSTAND WHAT WE CAN DO AS ELECTED OFFICIALS TO, TO ADDRESS THE ISSUE AND REALLY TO REDUCE, BASICALLY TO REDUCE OZONE POLLUTION AND PROTECT PUBLIC HEALTH.
THAT'S, THAT'S THE ULTIMATE GOAL OF, OF THIS PRESENTATION.
AND, AND OUR TASK, UH, TODAY, I HAVE NOT HEARD SOME OF THE WORDS YOU SAID TODAY, LIKE CATASTROPHIC, UM, WIND PATTERNS, UH, SINCE I WAS A GRADUATE STUDENT, UH, IN A BASEMENT, UH, IN A COMPUTER LAB, UH, BACK BEFORE I HAD MY OWN LAPTOP OR ANYBODY HAD THEIR OWN LAPTOP AND, UH, RUNNING SOME FORTRAN MODELS, UH, ULTIMATELY I DECIDED NOT TO PURSUE A PHD IN THAT FIELD.
AND I THINK IT'S FOR OBVIOUS REASONS, I THINK MY SKILLS ARE BETTER SPENT IN OTHER PLACES.
UM, BUT, UH, BUT, BUT THANK YOU VERY MUCH.
AND, UH, I'M CERTAINLY DON'T HAVE YOUR QUALIFICATIONS, BUT I, I THINK I, I KNOW A LITTLE BIT ABOUT WHERE WE'RE COMING FROM WHEN IT COMES TO USING ONE TYPE OF MODEL OVER ANOTHER.
AND, AND WE KNOW THAT MODELS AREN'T PERFECT.
UM, AND PEOPLE WHO RUN MODELS AND BUILD MODELS ARE KEENLY AWARE OF THAT.
AND, UM, AS YOU, AS YOU MENTIONED TODAY, AND THE LAST THING WE, YOU WANT TO DO IT SEEMS LIKE IS, IS GIVE INACCURATE INFORMATION, RIGHT? BECAUSE WE, OR AT LEAST WHEN I WAS IN THAT POSITION, I LOVED RUNNING MODELS.
I LOVE THE EXACTNESS OF MATHEMATICS, AND WHEN THINGS GET MESSY, I DIDN'T LIKE IT.
AND, UH, SO YOU, YOU BASICALLY NARROW DOWN WHAT YOUR CONCLUSIONS ARE OR WHAT YOU'RE ABLE TO DEDUCE TO WHAT'S TRUE, RIGHT? YOU KNOW THAT THERE'S A LOT OF NOISE OUT THERE, BUT THE RECOMMENDATIONS THAT YOU GIVE US, THEY'RE THE ONES THAT YOU, UM, THAT YOU VALIDATED THAT YOU HAVE FAITH IN.
THE PROBLEM IS, AS KEN SHEAR, THE HEAD OF EPAS MODELING BRANCH SAID IT'S VERY IMPORTANT THAT, UH, THE MODELS WE USE GIVE ACCURATE ANSWERS.
BUT IT'S ALSO IMPORTANT WE DO IT FOR THE RIGHT REASONS.
IT'S VERY DIFFICULT TO FIGURE OUT IF YOU HAVE THE RIGHT REASONS.
SO ONCE YOU KNOW YOUR MODEL IS DISAGREEING WITH REALITY, THERE'S A WHOLE SERIES YOU HAVE TO DO.
IT TURNS OUT THE MODELS ARE EQUIPPED WITH MOST OF THESE TOOLS, JUST LIKE YOU SUGGESTED.
THEY PROBABLY ALL HAVE THEM BECAUSE THE DEVELOPERS WERE VERY INTERESTED IN THIS.
THAT'S NOT ALWAYS TRUE FOR APPLICATIONS.
PEOPLE, THEY'VE GOT A CONTRACT, THEY GOTTA GET AN ANSWER REALLY QUICK.
THEY'VE GOT DATA THEY'RE GETTING FROM SOMEONE ELSE.
THEY DON'T HAVE TIME IF TO DO THE KINDS OF QUALITY DETAIL ASSESSMENTS MM-HMM.
AND THEY DO GIVE YOU WHAT THEY THINK IS THE BEST ANSWER.
SO I'M GONNA INTERRUPT REAL QUICK.
WHEN YOU SAY FOR THE RIGHT REASONS YES.
YOU DON'T MEAN LIKE FOR THE RIGHT MORAL REASONS,
WELL, YOU, YOU HAVE, YOU HAVE DONE EFFORTS, YOU'VE WORKED ON EFFORTS TO SHOW THAT YOU, IT, YOU'VE EXAMINED POTENTIAL COMPENSATING ERRORS.
SO, SO IN ONE CASE, OFTEN THE MODELER
[01:20:01]
RUNNING IT FOR PURPOSES OF REGULATION HAS NOT, HE'S ASSUMED THAT THE BUILDER BUILT IT, RIGHT? BUT THE BUILDER HAD A CERTAIN SET OF CASES HE TESTED IT ON, WHICH MIGHT BE DIFFERENT FROM THE CASES YOU'RE TESTING IT ON, AND HE GOT THE RIGHT ANSWER, AND IT WORKED FOR HIM, BUT YOU DIDN'T GET THE RIGHT ANSWER, EVEN THOUGH HIS ANSWER WAS RIGHT, WORKED FOR HIM WHEN HE DID IT MM-HMM.SO, SO IT, IT, IT, IT, THERE'S A DESIGN YOU CAN DO, THERE'S A SERIES OF TESTS YOU CAN ASK PEOPLE TO DO TO CONFIRM THIS.
WHAT'S GOING ON NOW IS MOST PEOPLE WHO ARE ASKING MODELERS TO GIVE THEM ANSWERS DON'T CARE.
THEY DON'T ASK, THEY'RE UNWILLING TO PAY BECAUSE TO GET THAT ANSWER, THEY HAVE TO MAKE LOTS MORE RUNS.
THEY HAVE TO TINKER WITH STUFF, THEY HAVE TO DO TESTS, AND THAT ADDS TIME, AND IT ADDS MONEY TO THE COST OF AN APPLICATIONS CONTRACT.
THAT'S WHY MOST MODELERS DON'T ACTUALLY FINISH THAT PIECE OUT.
UH, AND SO THAT MEANS THAT IF YOU'RE CONTRACTING WITH PEOPLE TO DO MODEL RUNS, YOU NEED TO INCORPORATE IN THE CONTRACT, THOSE WORK STATEMENTS, THOSE DELIVERABLES, AND ASK THEM TO PRODUCE IT.
THEY WILL PRODUCE A NICE SINGLE GRAPH.
IT SHOWS A STRAIGHT LINE WITH A LITTLE BIT OF SCATTER, AND THAT'S ALL YOU EVER SEE, OKAY? SO BY HAVING YOU HERE, IT GIVES US THE ABILITY TO DO SOME OF THAT QUALITY CHECK.
I WILL GIVE YOU A LONG LIST OF THINGS.
AND I CAN LOOK AT ANYTHING THAT Y'ALL HAVE DONE AND DO MY OWN.
NOW, TO REALLY DO IT, YOU HAVE TO GET INTO THE INTERNALS OF THE MODEL, AND THEY WOULD HAVE TO DO STUFF, BUT I WOULD BE GLAD TO COOPERATE WITH ANY MODELING GROUP THAT YOU GUYS PICK OUT.
AND ASK THE KIND OF QUESTIONS THAT OUGHT TO BE ASKED.
UM, AND THAT'S WHAT I DID WHEN I DID THIS INVOLVEMENT FROM NORTH CAROLINA.
I WOULD MEET WITH THEM WITH THE STATE BOARD AND WITH ALL OF THE PEOPLE, AND I'D HAMMER THE HELL OUT OF THE MODELERS OVER THIS AND THAT AND THE OTHER.
THEY LEARN NOT TO COME IN WITHOUT ANSWERS.
UM, OKAY, SO WE'VE GOTTEN PRESENTATIONS.
UH, I'VE, I'VE SAT ON ONE OF THE TECHNICAL COMMITTEES THAT ACOG HAD A, A WHILE BACK.
AND SO WE'VE GOTTEN PLENTY OF PRESENTATIONS ON THEIR, ON THEIR MODELING RUNS.
AND ACTUALLY, SOME OF THOSE FINDINGS LOOK DIFFERENT FROM WHAT YOU'RE, FROM WHAT YOU'VE SHOWN US.
AND I THINK WHAT YOU'RE, WHAT YOU'VE JUST DONE IS EXPLAIN WHY IT MIGHT BE DIFFERENT, RIGHT? YES.
SO THESE ARE MY THREE TAKEAWAYS FROM YOUR, FROM YOUR PRESENTATION, UM, ARE THAT WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE METEOROLOGY ON HIGH OZONE DAYS IN SAN ANTONIO, YOU FIND THAT AIR MASSES ARE NOT COMING FROM, FROM HOUSTON, AND THEY'RE NOT COMING FROM MEXICO, THEY'RE COMING FROM SOMEPLACE NEARBY IN THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST.
YOU HAVE TO, YOU HAVE TO, YOU HAVE TO CALIBRATE THIS A LITTLE BIT, OKAY? YOU HAVE TO CALIBRATE THIS A LITTLE BIT BECAUSE HERE'S WHAT'S HAPPENING, BECAUSE OF THE ROTATING WINDS, THE MORNING TRANSPORT DISTANCES ARE SHORT, THE AFTERNOON TRANSPORT DISTANCES CAN BE QUITE LONG.
SO YOU HAVE TO BE VERY CAREFUL TO DISTINGUISH, AND YOU HAVE TO HAVE AN ANALYSIS OF WHAT WERE THE, SO ALL OF MY NUMBERS, I'M PRESENTING YOU ABOUT ARRIVAL TIMES.
SO THEY'RE ALL MORNING TRAVEL DISTANCES WHERE THE WINDS ARE SLOW.
YOU DON'T SEE MODELERS DOING THIS.
THE QUESTION IS, CAN THE METEOROLOGY MODEL EVEN REPRODUCE THE REAL WINDS? THEY HAVEN'T DEMONSTRATED THAT YET.
SO MY CON, SO BASED ON, ON THAT FINDING OR THAT CONCLUSION, WHAT IT MEANS TO US AS POLICY MAKERS IS WE DON'T HAVE TO IMPLEMENT SOME CITYWIDE OR EVEN COUNTYWIDE MEASURE RIGHT NOW TO REDUCE, TO FIND A REDUCTION IN OZONE, WE CAN USE A SCALPEL.
AND LOOK AT THAT AREA WHERE THE WIND IS COMING FROM.
THAT'S EXACTLY WHAT IT LOOKS LIKE TO ME.
MOST OF THE CITY DOES NOT HAVE A PROBLEM.
MOST OF THE CITY IS NOT THE SOURCE OF THE PROBLEM AT BULLETS AND SO ON.
SO THERE'S A, YOU GOT TWO MONITORS THAT ARE IN VIOLATION, THE OTHERS AREN'T REGULATORY MONITORS.
YOU FIX THOSE TWO MONITORS, OKAY? SO THAT'S WHAT YOU DO.
AND YOU FIX THOSE TWO MONITORS BY SAYING, WELL, WHY DID THEY DO IT? AND THEN YOU REMOVE WHATEVER WAS THE CAUSE OF DOING IT.
IT DOESN'T REQUIRE YOU DO IT EVERY FREAKING WHERE YOU GOTTA GET THOSE TWO MONITORS TO DO IT.
ALL RIGHT? SO THAT'S THE CONCLUSION, THE POLICY IMPACT.
AND THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THAT'S GOING TO BE A LOT LESS EXPENSIVE THAN DOING SOMETHING COUNTYWIDE OR CITYWIDE IF IT'S AS IF IT'S TARGETED.
AND WE'LL KNOW MORE DETAILS WHEN WE FIND OUT WHERE IT'S COMING FROM.
BUT, BUT I THINK THAT'S POTENTIALLY GOOD NEWS.
I'M GONNA MOVE ON TO MY SECOND CONCLUSION FROM YOUR PRESENTATION, IS THAT WHEN YOU REVIEW THE NOX DATA, UM, YOU FIND THAT NOX IS NOT THE DRIVER.
SO NITROUS OXIDES IS NOT THE DRIVER ON HIGH OZONE DAYS.
SO WHAT HAPPENS IS THAT THERE'S HIGH, THERE ARE HIGH OZONE DAYS THAT HAVE BOTH HIGH NOX AND LOW NOX, AND IT DOESN'T MAKE ANY DIFFERENCE.
YOU STILL AND TO ONE DAY AFTER THE OTHER.
SO IT, THE, THE NOX PROBABLY IT, I MEAN OBVIOUSLY THE NOX PARTICIPATES, BUT IT CAN PARTICIPATE
[01:25:01]
IN SO MANY DIFFERENT WAYS THAT IT, IT, IT IS, REMEMBER IT NOX IS THAT I SHOWED YOU THE CURVE WHERE IF YOU INCREASE NOX, YOU INCREASE OZONE.IF YOU INCREASE NOX MORE, YOU DECREASE OZONE.
SO YOU GOT THIS FUNNY BEHAVIOR AND YOU NEVER KNOW EXACTLY WHERE YOU ARE.
BUT WHAT I SEE FROM LOOKING AT THE ACTUAL OBSERVATIONS IS THERE'S NO, THERE'S NO REAL CORRELATION BETWEEN HI OZONE AND HIN KNOX.
SO THE POLICY IMPLICATION FOR THAT, AS FOR THAT CONCLUSION OR FOR THAT OBSERVATION, THE, THE RECOMMENDATION TO US IS POLICY MAKERS IS FOCUS ON B O C, NOT ON KNOX FINDING THE V O C SOURCES.
IT'S NOT LIKE THE, I DOUBT THAT YOU HAVE SOME PLACE SITTING IN THE MIDDLE OF SAN ANTONIO THAT EVERY FOURTH DAY PUFFS OUT SOMETHING EXTRA.
ALL RIGHT, SO OUR TIME IS BETTER SPENT ON V O C THAN ON KNOX.
AND, AND THOSE, THAT MAY SOUND LIKE JARGON, BUT WHEN WE TALK ABOUT V O C VERSUS KNOX, WE'RE TALKING ABOUT DIFFERENT INDUSTRIES OR DIFFERENT SOURCES THAT IT COULD BE COMING FROM.
BUT VOCS CAN COME OUT ALL, I MEAN, ALL OVER THE PLACE IN DIFFERENT WAYS.
AND LOOK, WE'RE NOT TALKING ABOUT LARGE QUANTITIES.
WE'RE TALKING ABOUT A PLUME THAT MIGHT BE A KILOMETER OR TWO WIDE THAT GOT CAUGHT IN THE WIND AND IT'S TAKEN FOUR HOURS TO GET ACROSS THE PING AND THEN IT'S GONE.
IT'S COULD BE ONE GUY UP THERE WITH SOME PARTICULAR THING MM-HMM.
AND THAT'S WHY YOU NEED THE CAMERA.
I MEAN, LOOK, YOU COULD HAVE A, A TANK THAT SAT THERE FOREVER AND NOTHING SHOWS UP, AND THEN ONE DAY A HOLE APPEARS IN IT AND ALL KINDS OF THINGS SHOW UP.
SO IT'S, YOU KNOW, THAT IT, TO FIX IT IS EASY TO, ONCE YOU KNOW WHAT IT IS.
AND SO THE PROBLEM IS WE DON'T KNOW.
YOU HAVE A ALMOST NO V O C DATA THAT'S MEANINGFUL, SO THAT'S BAD NEWS.
BUT THE GOOD NEWS, IT'S PROBABLY LIMITED WHERE IT'S COMING FROM.
AND SO NOW YOU WOULD DO EXTRA THINGS BESIDES TAKE MY WORD FOR IT, RIGHT? YOU WOULD FIND OTHER WAYS OF CONFIRMING WHAT MY INSIGHTS ARE.
SO IT LOOKS LIKE WE HAVE THE ABILITY TO USE MOBILE MONITORING YES.
TO FIND THAT SO WE DON'T HAVE TO ESTABLISH A WHOLE NEW MONITORING STATION.
NO, YOU DON'T WANT TO DO THAT, WHICH IS LIKE ABOUT A MILLION DOLLARS, RIGHT? DON'T WANNA, WE CAN HAVE A LOWER COST MOBILE MONITOR THAT'S GOING TO GIVE US A BETTER SENSE OF WHERE IT MAY BE COMING FROM AND WHERE, RIGHT? YEAH.
I, I, OKAY, HERE'S ANOTHER THING I WOULD DO, AND THIS WOULD MAKE A LOT OF TROUBLE, BUT IT MAY NOT WORK.
BULLIS IS IN THE WRONG DAMN PLACE, HAS BEEN FOR A LONG, LONG TIME.
NOW, THE FACT THAT IT IS THE CONTROLLING REGULATORY MONITOR, THEY AIN'T GONNA LET YOU MOVE IT BETWEEN NOW AND 2020.
BUT YOU WANNA HAVE THEM DISCOUNTED.
IN OTHER WORDS, THEY NEED TO THINK ABOUT, HUH? IF I'M LOCATED, SO NOBODY KNOWS WHAT A WASTE TREATMENT FACILITY DOES TO AN AIR QUALITY MONITOR.
WE DON'T KNOW IF ALL THIS CRAZY BEHAVIOR AT BULLIS IS DUE TO BULLIS'S OWN OPERATION NEARBY.
WE DON'T KNOW WHAT BULLIS'S OPERATING CONDITIONS ARE.
SO GO TO BULLAS AND GET THEM TO TELL YOU WHEN DOES THE PLAN OPERATE? WHEN DO THEY DO THIS? WHEN DID THEY DO THAT? WHEN ARE THE ALGAE BLOOMS? DO THOSE CORRELATE WITH YOUR OZONE PROBLEM? IF THEY DO, BULLS OUGHT TO HAVE SOME PIECE OF THIS EVEN THOUGH THEY'RE FEDERAL.
UH, SO, SO, YOU KNOW, THIS IS A, THIS IS A MYSTERY.
IT IT, YOU DON'T WANT TO GO BROAD AND REGULATE EVERYBODY AND DO ALL OF THIS.
YOU WANT TO TARGET THIS AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE.
THAT'LL BE A BETTER USE OF OUR TIME AND OUR DOLLARS.
AND, AND WE'LL ACTUALLY GET RESULTS.
AND THEN THE, THE LAST CONCLUSION I'M DRAWING FROM THIS IS THAT I'M SORRY.
THERE IS SOMETHING WE CAN DO TO, TO AFFECT OUR OZONE LEVELS.
I, UM, SAYING THAT WE DON'T, THAT THERE'S NOTHING WE CAN DO MAY NOT ACTUALLY BE TRUE.
I, I THINK THERE'S SOMETHING YOU COULD DO.
IT'S, YOU KNOW, IT'S STILL A MYSTERY.
I CAN'T TELL YOU THE EXACT ANSWER, BUT GIVEN THE BEHAVIOR AND THE WAY IT WORKS AND SO FORTH, IT'S, IT'S CLEARLY NOT CITYWIDE.
THE MONITORS AREN'T VIOLATING WHEN THE WINDS COMING ARE COMING IN FROM THE SOUTH.
EVEN IN THE EVENING, IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN THEY FLOW THROUGH, THEY DO PICK UP STUFF.
BUT I DON'T, I DON'T SEE OZONE IN THE PERIOD THAT I'VE LOOKED AT.
I DON'T SEE OZONE VIOLATIONS IN THE BODY OF THE CITY, WHICH WOULD'VE BEEN TRUE IF IT WAS COMING FROM, UM, WHAT'S THE BIG SHALE THING? EAGLE FORD.
THERE'S NOTHING COMING OUTTA EAGLE FORD'S MAKING NOSE ZONE IN BULLS.
I HAVE SOME FOLLOW UP QUESTIONS FOR, FOR DR.
UM, SO, UH, LIKE I MENTIONED A NUMBER OF YEARS AGO, I WAS ON A TECHNICAL WORKING GROUP AT, AT ACOG, AND THEY RAN AN AIR QUALITY COMMITTEE.
IT WAS SPECIFICALLY FOCUSED ON, ON ATTAINMENT.
UH, THIS IS WHEN WE WERE CLOSE TO,
[01:30:01]
TO NON-ATTAINMENT A NUMBER OF YEARS AGO.AND THAT COMMITTEE USED TO BE CHAIRED BY JUDGE WOLF.
UH, LATER ON IT WAS CHAIRED BY FORMER COUNCILMAN NUREMBERG, WHO'S, WHO'S NOW OUR MAYOR.
AND MOST RECENTLY, UH, COUNCILMAN TREVINO WAS, WAS THE VICE CHAIR OF THAT.
AND, UH, I THOUGHT IT WAS A REALLY GREAT COMPOSITION BECAUSE IT WAS, IT WAS SEPARATED FROM, FROM THE ACOG BOARD ITSELF.
IT WAS, ITS ONLY FOCUS WAS, WAS AIR QUALITY, UH, STAFFED BY ACOG, WHICH WAS GREAT.
UH, BUT THEY ALSO HAD A NUMBER OF, OF WORKING GROUPS.
SO THEY HAD A TECHNICAL WORKING GROUP.
THEY HAD AN ADVISORY WORKING GROUP, WHICH IS BASICALLY INDUSTRY, YOU KNOW, ADVISING ON WHAT THINGS THEY COULD POSSIBLY DO.
UM, THEY ALSO HAD, UM, I THINK LIKE A PUBLIC, UH, ENGAGEMENT GROUP.
UM, LINE ITEM BETO COMES BY LAST YEAR.
AND WE NO LONGER HAVE THAT COMMITTEE ANYMORE.
SO I'M GLAD TO HEAR YOU TALK ABOUT A WORKING GROUP, UH, BETWEEN THE, THE CITY AND THE COUNTY.
CAN YOU TELL ME A LITTLE BIT MORE ABOUT THAT AS WELL AS, UM, UH, BRINGING IN OTHER EXPERTISE, UH, LIKE FROM, FROM THE COMMUNITY IN TERMS OF PUBLIC ENGAGEMENT OR IN TERMS OF ADVISORY GROUPS? SO IF YOU LOOK AT THE OTHER DOCUMENT THAT YOU HAVE, THIS OZONE ATTAINMENT ACTION PLAN, UM, I THINK THAT THAT GETS AT A LOT OF WHAT YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT, BECAUSE THAT'S WHERE WE'RE GOING TO BRING IN EXPERTS AND KEY STAKEHOLDERS AND COMMUNITY INPUT AROUND THE IMPORTANT MAJOR WORK AREAS TO GETTING US BACK INTO ATTAINMENT.
UM, AND SO THERE'S THAT WORK THAT'S ALREADY UNDERWAY, AND THEN USING THIS AS A DOCUMENT TO MAKE SURE THAT THE CITY AND THE COUNTY ALWAYS KNOW WHAT'S GOING ON.
UH, IS WHAT WE'RE GONNA BE MEETING MONTHLY TO DISCUSS THIS, MAKE SURE WE KNOW WHAT'S HAPPENING, UM, AT THE CITY, MAKE SURE WE KNOW WHAT'S HAPPENING AT THE COUNTY, AND MAKE SURE THAT WE, UM, STAY IN LOCKSTEP AS WE MOVE TOGETHER.
BECAUSE IT'S ONLY BEXAR COUNTY THAT, UH, IS IN OZONE NON-ATTAINMENT OF ALL OF THE ACOG REGION.
AND SO WE'VE, WE NEED TO BE THE ONES TO KIND OF DRIVE THE SOLUTION.
UM, SO FORMERLY, UH, I THINK ACOG SAID THAT THEY WERE GOING TO TRANSFER THE RESPONSIBILITIES OF THIS ONE COMMITTEE, THE, THE AIR COMMITTEE TO THEIR FULL BOARD.
AM I GETTING THAT RIGHT? THERE IS THE, THERE IS A COMMITTEE AT ACOG AND YOU AND I ARE ON IT.
SO I, I JUST THINK IT'S APPROPRIATE FOR YOU TO BE WORKING WITH THE COUNTY.
UM, WHAT CONCERNS ME ABOUT HAVING THIS HOUSED IN ANY WAY AT, AT THE COG IS MEAN.
THEY DEFINITELY HAVE YEARS OF EXPERIENCE AND HAVE BEEN THE FO, YOU KNOW, KIND OF THE COORDINATING POINT.
UM, BUT IT'S A 13 COUNTY BODY, AND TODAY WE FIND OUT IT'S JUST ONE COUNTY THAT'S DEALING WITH NON-ATTAINMENT, AND THAT'S US.
SO I THINK IT'S REALLY INCUMBENT UPON US TO TAKE THAT LEADERSHIP AND, AND PUT THIS GROUP OUT THERE LIKE, LIKE YOU'RE DOING.
SO I'M GLAD TO SEE THAT, THAT YOU'RE DOING THAT.
I THINK ON THE WHOLE, THIS IS GOOD NEWS.
YOU HAVE A PLAN GOING FORWARD.
SO I'M, I'M REALLY GLAD TO SEE THAT.
I, UM,
AND THEN YOU GUYS, SOMEBODY LIED TO ME.
UH, BUT, UM,
AND SO PLEASE, PLEASE FORGIVE ME FOR, FOR COMING ACROSS AS OBTUSE.
UM, I'M NOT TRYING TO BE OBTUSE.
AND SO WHAT I, WHAT I, I READ SOMEWHERE IN THE PRESENTATION, MORNING, WIND DIRECTIONS AND BULL SITES ARE FROM WEST, NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST NORTH.
AND AT S A N W ARE FROM NORTHWEST NORTH FOR EIGHT X AND NINE X OZONE DAYS.
AND VERY RARE FROM SOUTHEAST SOUTH TOWARDS THE CITY COURT.
I HAVE NO IDEA WHAT THAT MEANS, BUT I THINK IT MEANS THAT WE'RE SEEING A SOURCE OF EMISSIONS FROM OR NEAR DISTRICT EIGHT.
NOW, I DON'T KNOW WHAT DISTRICT YES,
THE, THE SIMPLE ANSWER IS THAT'S POTENTIALLY WHAT WE'RE SAYING.
THANK YOU FOR NOT LIKE SAYING IT, UH, BECAUSE
UH, BUT, UM, SO NOW MY QUESTION IS, IS NOW THAT I UNDERSTAND THAT, IS THIS JUST AN EXAMPLE THAT YOU'RE GIVING US OR IS THIS A BIG PROBLEM? BECAUSE
[01:35:01]
I, I, I DON'T UNDERSTAND.I NEED TO KNOW IF THIS IS JUST ONE OF MANY ISSUES OR IF THIS IS LIKE, HEY GUYS, SERIOUSLY, THIS IS OUR, LIKE ONE OF THE THINGS THAT YOU GUYS NEED TO FOCUS ON RELATIVELY QUICKLY, THIS IS WHERE WE'RE GOING TO BE TARGETING FINDING POTENTIAL SOURCES OF VOCS.
BECAUSE IF WE FIND THOSE SOURCES AND CAN TAP 'EM OFF YEAH.
THEN WE CAN MAKE ENOUGH OF A DIFFERENCE IN THE CHEMISTRY TO REDUCE THE OZONE BACK TO WHERE IT NEEDS TO BE.
UH, WHAT I ALSO GET IS THAT WHAT WOULD HELP US ACCOMPLISH THAT IS ADDITIONAL WORK, YOU KNOW, MORE INVESTIGATION WITH THE HELP OF SOME INNOVATIVE TECHNOLOGY, THAT FFL FLU FLYER, IT'S CLEAR FLIR CAMERA, UM, IS A USEFUL TOOL.
I'M HEARING YOU SAY THAT WHILE YOU WERE TALKING.
U T S A HAS A FEW, SO DOES TEXAS A AND M I UNDERSTAND THERE'S ALSO SOME IN PRIVATE HANDS.
AND SO I QUESTION WHETHER OR NOT WE NEED TO GO OUT AND BUY A HUNDRED THOUSAND DOLLARS CAMERA.
YEAH, I, I QUESTION WHETHER OR NOT MAYBE SOMEBODY WOULD LIKE TO PARTNER WITH US AND LEND US.
RIGHT? UM, OKAY, DOC, I THANK YOU FOR BEING HERE.
THE, UH, THERE'S TWO THINGS THAT YOU SAID.
UH, ONE OF 'EM WAS THAT THE CMX MODEL SIMULATION WITH NESTED GRIDS IS LIKELY TO BE USED FOR ESTIMATING OZONE CONTROL.
I HAVE NO IDEA WHAT THAT MEANS, BUT THANK GOD THEY'RE NESTED GRIDS
UH, AND THEN THE SECOND THING, THE SECOND THING I'LL TELL YOU IS THAT YOU DID SAY SOMETHING, WHICH I, I WANNA MAKE ABSOLUTELY CLEAR, IS THAT, YOU KNOW, WE OUGHT TO GO PUSH ON CAMP BOLUS, KNOCK ON THEIR DOOR, AND THEY OUGHT TO PAY FOR SOME OF THIS, OR THEY OUGHT TO BE, YOU KNOW, CARRYING SOME OF THAT COST.
UM, NOW WHETHER YOU CAN DO IT OR NOT LEGALLY, I DON'T KNOW, BUT YEAH, AND SO THERE'S THE OTHER CONSIDERATION, RIGHT? BECAUSE AS SOON AS YOU SAID THAT, I LOOKED OVER AT MY COLLEAGUE COUNCILMAN PERRY, AND I THINK HE AND I ARE BOTH IN SYNC ON THIS ONE.
AND THAT IS, WE DON'T GO AND DICTATE TERMS TO CAMP BULLIS EVER.
I MEAN, WE, THERE ARE LIFEBLOOD HERE IN TOWN AND IN FACT, WHAT WE DO IS WE TRY TO MAKE SURE THAT THEIR MISSIONS ARE AS EASY FOR THEM TO ACCOMPLISH AS POSSIBLE.
AND SO, UM, I WANNA MAKE SURE THAT THAT'S NOT ON THE LIST, WHICH IS TO GO, GO PUSH 'EM AROUND, RIGHT? NO.
AND BY THE WAY, UM, MESSY, UNPREDICTABLE, AND DIFFICULT IS, IS ALSO ROBERTO TREVINO, THAT'S WHAT WE CALL HIM WHEN YOU LAND AROUND.
UM, SO ASK THE MAYOR, UM, UH,
SO I TOLD HIM, YOU KNOW, WHILE, WHILE, WHILE I WAS LISTENING THAT, YOU KNOW, I WAS WRITING A LIST OF QUESTIONS THAT WOULD HOPEFULLY MAKE THIS EXPERIENCE AS INTELLECTUALLY STIMULATING FOR YOU AS IT WAS FOR US, RIGHT? RIGHT.
AND THEN I WAS GONNA ASK YOU, YOU KNOW, WHETHER OR NOT YOU GIVE ANY THOUGHT TO SODIUM HYPO BROMITE.
RIGHT? AND THE ONLY CORRECT ANSWER THAT SHOULD COME OUTTA YOUR MOUTH IS NOT BRO
THERE, THERE'S A WHOLE LAYER OF THAT JOKE THAT NOBODY GOT.
SO WHY DON'T YOU EXPLAIN IT TO HIM? MANNY.
COUNCILMAN SANDOVAL GOT THE JOKE.
UH, LOT OF DATA, LOT OF INFORMATION, BUT YEAH, I DO HAVE A COUPLE OF QUESTIONS HERE.
UM, YOU KNOW, LOOKING AT, UH, SOME OF THESE CHARTS ON HERE, UM, I I, AND THIS IS COMPARING SEVERAL DIFFERENT CITIES HERE.
THEY'VE ALL MADE REDUCTIONS OVER THE LAST, UH, 15, 18 YEARS.
I MEAN, HOUSTON, UH, I THINK YOU WERE CLAIMING, UH, SOME CREDIT IN THAT THEIR, THEIR IMPROVEMENT IS ABOUT ON THE SAME LINE AS THE REST OF THESE CITIES.
WHAT, WHY? I MEAN, I'M LOOKING AT THESE GRAPHS AND THEY'RE ALL GOING DOWN.
OH, UM, REMEMBER I'M ONLY LOOKING AT A ELECTRON NARROW.
I'M SORRY, I'M ONLY LOOKING AT A FEW YEARS THERE.
IF YOU GO, HOUSTON STARTS IN 2000 AND THE DECLINE WAS MASSIVE AND IT WAS IN PART BECAUSE OF IMPLEMENTATION OF CONTROLS ON VOCS THAT WERE SPECIFIC.
AND THEN WHAT HAPPENED WAS AT THE BOTTOM, THEN WHAT HAPPENED AT THE BOTTOM OF THAT?
[01:40:01]
THE PROBLEM WAS TYPICAL AS A, A SIP WAS PASSED IN 2004, IT WAS EXTREMELY BENEFICIAL.IT WAS PERFECTLY STRAIGHT LINE FOR YEARS AND YEARS.
YOU KNOW WHAT E P A DID? THEY LOWERED THE STANDARD.
OKAY? THEN YOU SAY, WELL, OH, OKAY, WELL THEY KEPT UP FOR A WHILE.
SO HOUSTON CONTINUED TO ATTAIN, THEN THEY LURED THE STANDARD AND THEN HOUSTON CONTINUED TO ATTAIN AND THEN THEY LURED THE STANDARD.
AND NOW GUESS WHAT? HOUSTON DOESN'T ATTAIN, YOU KNOW WHY? BECAUSE OF ALL THE SOURCES THEY DIDN'T CONTROL IN 2004, WHICH THEY COULD HAVE CONTROLLED BUT DECIDED NOT TO, AND IT WOULD HAVE ADDED A LARGER REDUCTION.
AND WHO KNEW THEY WERE GONNA REDUCE THE OZONE STANDARD? SO WHAT'S GOING ON RIGHT NOW IS COMPOUNDS THAT USED TO VOCS THAT USED TO BE EXEMPT, ARE NOW THE ONES ACTUALLY MAKING THE PROBLEM IN HOUSTON.
SO YOU GOTTA EXPAND THE RE REDUCTION OUT TO COVER THOSE GUYS WHO DIDN'T.
THOSE ARE THE LESS REACTIVE ONES.
THEY'RE KINDA LIKE THE ONES YOU GUYS HAVE HERE.
Y'ALL DON'T HAVE THE HR VOCS THAT HOUSTON HAS, SO YOU DON'T HAVE THAT KIND OF A PROBLEM, BUT THE STANDARD'S GOTTEN LOWER.
YOU, YOU'RE NOW STRUGGLING WITH THE LOWEST STANDARD WE'VE EVER HAD.
I I WOULDN'T, I WOULD SUSPECT THAT IT'S PROBABLY GONNA GO DOWN EVEN FURTHER, UH, LOOKING AT HISTORY HERE.
BUT, UH, YEAH, I'M JUST, UH, JUST A GENERAL COMMENT.
I SEE THAT ALL THE CITIES ARE HAVE A DOWNWARD TREND.
UM, YOU KNOW, AND I, I THINK HOUSTON INVESTED THREE TO $5 BILLION BETWEEN 2001 AND 2007.
BUT, YOU KNOW, I'M LOOKING AT THESE OTHER CITIES AND THEY DIDN'T INVEST THAT KIND OF MONEY AND THEY'RE STILL GOING DOWN AS WELL, UH, IN, IN, IN ALL OF THESE READINGS.
SO THAT, JUST, JUST TO COMMENT ABOUT THAT, JUST FROM MY OBSERVATIONS ON YOUR, YOUR DATA FROM THE REPORT.
OH, THAT GRAPH YOU'RE HOLDING? I DON'T KNOW THAT GRAPH.
IS IT MY STUFF OR SOMEBODY ELSE'S? THIS COULD BE, UH, I THINK THAT'S ACCO.
I DON'T KNOW SOME OF THEIR DATA IN DETAIL.
BUT YOU HAVE THEIR, YOU, YOU SAID YOU HAVE THEIR DATA NOW? I DO.
AND I'LL BE, AND I'LL BE ABLE TO COME BACK WITH GRAPHS THAT MATCH UP THE ONES THAT I SHOWED YOU.
SO WE'RE, WE'RE COMPARING APPLES TO APPLES INSTEAD OF DIFFERENT THINGS.
UM, LET, LET ME MAKE IT CLEAR ABOUT HOUSTON AND Y'ALL WERE TALKING ABOUT THIS AND, UH, COUNCILMAN COUNCILWOMAN SANDOVAL RAISED THE QUESTION ONE OF THE WAYS, HI, GOT TO DO, WHAT THEY GOT TO DO WAS THEY LEVERAGED THE HELL OUTTA WASHINGTON AND THEY WENT AND THEY GOT MASSIVE AMOUNTS OF GRANT FUNDS BROUGHT IN AND RESEARCH PROJECTS BROUGHT IN.
THEY GOT NASA, NOA, OTHERS TO COME IN ON FIELD STUDIES AND PROGRAMS. THEY GOT AIRCRAFT TO COME DOWN AND FLY AROUND.
THEY GOT ALL THIS DONE BY SIMPLY GOING TO THE LOBBYIST WHO WENT TO WASHINGTON, WHO GOT THE BUDGET SET UP AND HAD THE RESEARCHERS AND PEOPLE COME DOWN.
THAT'S WHAT MADE T C Q CHANGE THEIR MIND A LOT BECAUSE THEY HAD WORLD CLASS RESEARCHERS STANDING THERE SAYING, NO, THAT'S NOT THE WAY IT WORKS.
Y'ALL HAVE NOT DONE ANY OF THIS.
YOU DON'T, YOU HAVEN'T MADE ANY EFFORT OR THINK ABOUT HOW, AND BECAUSE YOU HAVEN'T HAD TO UP TILL NOW, WHAT WOULD YOU COULD DO YOU HAVE ENOUGH? AND I DON'T KNOW THE POLITICAL SIDE.
DO YOU HAVE ENOUGH CLOUT AND SO FORTH TO ACTUALLY BEGIN TO SAY WE NEED SOME MONEY SPENT HERE.
I MEAN, I HEARD YOU TALK ABOUT THE, THE, UH, SETTLEMENT WITH TOYOTA, BUT WE'RE TALKING ABOUT JUST STANDARD BUDGETS OUT OUT OF THIS NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION, OUT OF NOA, OUT OF OTHER PLACES WHO ARE LOOKING FOR PLACES TO DO FIELD STUDIES.
NOW THERE WAS A RECENT SMALL ONE DONE HERE FOR V O C, BUT YOU KNOW WHAT, THEY WERE LOOKING AT THE SHALE.
THEY WEREN'T LOOKING AT YOU GUYS.
THEY WERE DOWN THERE TRYING TO FIGURE OUT WHETHER THE SHALE WAS CAUSING A PROBLEM OR NOT.
UM, SO THERE'S SOME WAYS TO BRING OTHER DOLLARS AND HOUSTON CERTAINLY BROUGHT OTHER DOLLARS IN BIG DOLLARS TO MAKE THAT KIND OF EFFORT WORK.
UM, SO THAT'S ONE, THAT'S A ONE WAY TO MAKE TO HELP THIS.
I MEAN, IT'S REALLY, IT WILL HAVE SCIENTIFIC INTEREST.
AND I'M REALLY INTERESTED IN YOUR, YOUR, UH, INFORMATION ABOUT THE BULLS AND THE NORTHWEST MONITORS UP THERE ABOUT YEAH, IF YOU LOOK ON GOOGLE, THERE'S NOTHING UP THERE.
THERE'S NOTHING, ABSOLUTELY NOTHING THAT WOULD BE CAUSING THAT UNLESS IT'S THAT WAIT TREATMENT, PLANT SETTLEMENT POND, WHAT YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT, UH, THERE AT CAMP BULLIS.
BUT, UH, THAT, THAT IS DIRECTLY RELATED TO, YOU KNOW, AND I ASKED THAT QUESTION OF T C E Q, I SAID, HOW LONG HAVE THOSE MONITORS BEEN THERE? WELL, THEY'VE BEEN THERE FOR 40 YEARS AND THIS CITY HAS CHANGED DRAMATICALLY OVER 40 YEARS.
AND I, I, I DON'T UNDERSTAND WHY IT WOULD COST THAT MUCH MONEY JUST TO MOVE A MONITOR BECAUSE OF THE CHANGES IN THE CITY, THE COUNTY, YOU KNOW, OPERATIONS AT CAMP
[01:45:01]
BULLIS, WHATEVER.THEY'VE DONE IT IN OTHER CITIES THAT, UH, WE SHOULD, WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MOVE SOMETHING LIKE THAT, UH, BASED ON CHANGES IN OUR, OUR, UH, CITY HERE AND COUNTY.
SO I I, I'VE ASKED THAT QUESTION.
THEY HAVEN'T ANSWERED ME AS TO WHY IT CANNOT BE MOVED.
BRIDGER, I'D, I'D LIKE TO STILL PRESS THAT AS TO WHY THAT HAS TO STAY IN THAT LOCATION.
UM, YOU, YOU TALK ABOUT THE SHORTCOMINGS OF THE PHOTOCHEMICAL MODELING MM-HMM.
BUT HOW, HOW DO WE GET AROUND THAT SINCE THAT'S WHAT DRIVES ALL THIS ANYWAY? OH, I MEAN, THAT, THAT'S WHAT WE HAVE TO REPORT.
UM, YOU KNOW, T C E Q, HOW, HOW WOULD WE GET IT AROUND? I'LL TELL YOU PRECISELY 'CAUSE WE DID IT IN HOUSTON.
WELL, FIRST OF ALL, THE WAY TO DO IT CORRECTLY IS YOU DO THE MEASUREMENTS AND THE EXERCISES AND YOU FIND OUT WHY THE MODEL'S NOT GIVING THE RIGHT ANSWER AND YOU FIX IT.
OKAY? THAT'S, THAT'S A RESEARCH PROJECT.
TAKES A LOT OF WORK, TAKES A LOT OF TIME.
AND THAT'S WHAT E P A USED TO DO.
THE POLICY GUIDE STOPPED THEM BECAUSE IT HAD GOTTEN SO COSTLY AND SO COMPLICATED.
THE OTHER WAY TO DO IT IS WHAT I DID IN HOUSTON.
SO, UH, I WOULD, I WOULD WE, THE MODEL IN HISTON HAD THE SAME ISSUES, SAME PROBLEMS. SO I WENT, I WOULD GO TO MEETINGS AT E P A AND I WOULD BEAT UP THE MODEL REPEATEDLY.
AND FINALLY NORM FORE WHO RAN THE PROGRAM SAID, YEAH, YEAH, YEAH, WE KNOW ALL OF THAT, BUT IT'S REQUIRED BY LAW THAT WE USE IT.
AND THEN YOU PROVIDE A WEIGHT OF EVIDENCE ARGUMENT AS TO WHY YOU'RE NOT GONNA FOLLOW IT.
IT'S CALLED A WEIGHT OF EVIDENCE ARGUMENT.
ARGUE THE MODEL FAILS, DOESN'T REPRODUCE.
INSTEAD OF FIGHTING AND ARGUING AND TRYING TO THROW THE MODEL AWAY, YOU SIMPLY AT THE END OF THE PROCESS SAY, OH, WELL BECAUSE OF ALL THESE ISSUES, WE'RE GONNA GIVE YOU A WEIGHT OF EVIDENCE ARGUMENT AS TO WHY OUR PLAN IS THE CORRECT PLAN.
AND IF YOU DO THAT, THEY GO, OKAY, SEE THEY'RE JUST FACED AGAINST THE LAW.
THEY CAN'T NOT LET YOU DO THE MODELING.
YOU DON'T HAVE TO USE THE MODEL AS THE SOLE DECIDING FACTOR IN WHAT YOU'RE GOING TO DO.
YOU GIVE THEM A WEIGHT OF EVIDENCE ARGUMENT.
AND THERE'S AT LEAST A DOZEN CONTRACTORS IN THE COUNTRY THAT KNOW HOW TO CONSTRUCT A WEIGHT OF EVIDENCE ARGUMENT.
SO Y'ALL HAVE A WAY OUT OF THIS.
IF THE MODEL KEEPS TELLING YOU TO GO DO KNOCKS OR DO THIS OR DO THAT, YOU SPEND A LITTLE BIT OF TIME AND EFFORT TO BUILD A WEIGHT OF EVIDENCE ARGUMENT BASED ON OBSERVATIONS, REAL DATA, ET CETERA, ET CETERA.
AND IN THE END, YOU THEN TELL T C E Q, THIS IS WHAT WE BELIEVE IS HAPPENING.
IF YOU THINK YOU'VE GOT ANY BETTER INFORMATION THAN WE DO ABOUT WHY THIS IS HAPPENING, YOU SHOW IT TO US.
'CAUSE THAT'S WHAT THEY GOTTA DO TO E P A.
SO YOU CAN MAKE AN ARGUMENT TO E P A AND ALMOST, THEY'LL ALMOST WELCOME IT NOW BECAUSE E P A, THEY HATE TEXAS BECAUSE Y'ALL HAVE THIS HUGE METEOROLOGY DIFFERENCE FROM EVERYBODY ELSE.
YOU'RE THE ONLY ONES THAT HAVE ALL THESE ISSUES.
AND THEY, THEY DON'T HAVE THESE ISSUES IN THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY.
THEY DON'T HAVE THESE ISSUES IN THE NORTHEAST.
THEY DON'T WANNA DEAL WITH YOU BECAUSE YOU'RE SO DIFFERENT.
AND THEN THE LAST THING THEY WANT TO DO IS COME UP WITH SOMETHING DIFFERENT FOR SOMEBODY ELSE.
'CAUSE THAT'S WHAT'S HAPPENING OVER AND OVER.
CALIFORNIA SAYS, WE'RE DIFFERENT.
WASHINGTON SAYS WE'RE DIFFERENT.
THEY WANT THE SAME THING OVER AND OVER AND OVER.
SO IT IS POSSIBLE TO HAVE A MODEL THAT'S YOU'VE DONE THE BEST YOU CAN.
YOU STILL GET ANSWERS THAT DON'T FIT OR DON'T WORK CORRECTLY, AND YOU MAKE A WEIGHT OF EVIDENCE ARGUMENT AND YOU JUST TAKE IT TO E P A AND THEY WILL BUY IT.
THAT'S, THAT'S THE EASY WAY OUT.
WELL, I, YOU COULD QUOTE ME, IS THIS FINALIZED? IS THIS FINALIZED MY REPORT? YES.
I DON'T, WELL TALK ABOUT BACKGROUND, UH, OZONE.
WHAT, WHAT'S YOUR ESTIMATE ON THAT? WELL, WHERE, WHERE'S THAT? WELL, YOU COULD SEE IT IN THE GRAPHS.
IT'S OBVIOUS IF YOU GO BACK NOW, I ONLY SHOWED YOU TWO GRAPHS.
I HAVE 2000 GRAPHS OF DATA AND TIME.
OKAY? AND YOU CAN WATCH ALL THIS VARIATION AND SO FORTH.
SO WHAT YOU SEE IN THE HIGH WIND DAYS, THOSE LONG STRAIGHT DAYS, IF YOU GO LOOK AT THEM, THE BOTTOM OZONE DOESN'T GO BELOW IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT.
THE OZONE DOESN'T GO BELOW 2025 P P B.
THAT'S BECAUSE THAT'S THE CONTINENTAL BACKGROUND AND THE OCEAN BACKGROUND.
AND THIS WIND IS HAULING IN FROM A LONG WAYS AWAY, RIGHT? PAST EVERYTHING.
AND THAT'S WHAT YOUR MONITOR SEES.
ALRIGHT? IF YOU, IF YOU HAVE A SLOW WIND, WHAT'S HAPPENING IS ANY BACKGROUND, WELL FIRST OF ALL, THERE'S NOT MUCH BACKGROUND OZONE BEING BROUGHT IN BECAUSE IT'S NOT HAVING TO COME.
[01:50:01]
BOUNDARY CONDITIONS.SO THEY WIRE IN AROUND THE EDGE OF THE MODEL BACKGROUND AND THAT, AND WHEN THE WIND COMES FROM OVER THERE, THEY JUST BRING IN THE BACKGROUND.
NOW IF YOU LOOK AT ANOTHER CONDITION, YOU'LL SEE OZONE SITTING NOT GOING ALL THE WAY TO ZERO ON SEVERAL NIGHTS.
AND WHAT THAT IS, IS THAT YOU RAN OUT NOX.
IN OTHER WORDS, THE OZONE WAS HIGH.
AND OFTEN THE NOX TRAFFIC GOING HOME WILL EAT THE OZONE DOWN, DOWN, DOWN, DOWN, DOWN, DOWN, DOWN.
MOST TIMES WHEN YOU HAVE THESE SLOW WIND CONDITIONS, IT GOES TO ZERO.
THERE'S STILL NOX LEFT PERHAPS, BUT THERE'S NO OZONE THAT'S BEEN EATEN UP.
IF YOU SEE OZONE OVERNIGHT SITTING AT 30 40, THE REASON THAT IS, IS THAT WAS OZONE FROM THE DAY BEFORE.
AND THE NO EMISSIONS FROM THE CARS GOING HOME WEREN'T ENOUGH AND YOU GOT OZONE LEFT OVER.
YOU SEE THAT? AND THAT'S TRUE IN THE EXAMPLE I GAVE YOU.
THERE'S TWO WINDOWS ALL IN THE SAME MONTH.
ONE OF 'EM DID NOT GO TO ZERO, ONE OF 'EM WENT ALL THE WAY TO ZERO.
WHY? THE NOX WAS HIGHER IN THE ONE THAT WENT TO ZERO AND IT WASN'T IN THE ONE THAT DIDN'T.
SO YOU CAN HAVE ALL KINDS OF POSSIBLE EXPLANATIONS OF WHERE YOU GET THE OZONE AND WHAT THE TEMPORAL PATTERN LOOKS LIKE.
YOU JUST HAVE TO DO A LOT OF DIAGNOSTIC STUFF AND LOOK AT A LOT OF DAYS TO GET SOME SENSE OF WHAT THE TREND IS.
SO OZONE IS BEING BROUGHT IN BY TRANSPORT.
IT'S RARE THAT IT'S THE LEFTOVER OZONE FROM HOUSTON.
I NEVER SAW A SINGLE CASE WHERE IT LOOKED LIKE THERE WAS, 'CAUSE WHAT HAS HAPPENED TO THE OZONE IN HOUSTON? IT ALL GOES NORTHEAST WITH THE HIGH SPEED WINDS AT NIGHT.
I INCLUDED AUSTIN MONITORS AND EVERYTHING TO START WITH.
THEY DON'T HAVE ANYTHING TO DO WITH YOU GUYS.
UM, I DIDN'T SEE ANY CONTRIBUTION FROM, UM, THE SHALE.
DIDN'T SEE ANYTHING COMING THROUGH THE CITY THAT LOOKED LIKE ANYTHING WAS COMING OUTTA THE SHALE.
NOW I MIGHT EXPECT KNOCKS BECAUSE OF ALL THE TRUCKS SITTING THERE AND STUFF LIKE THAT, BUT DIDN'T SEE IF IT IS YOU'RE NOT GETTING OZONE IN THE SOUTH.
THAT'S NOT, THAT'S NOT THE PROBLEM.
THE PROBLEM IS, LIKE YOU SAID, I DON'T UNDERSTAND WHAT THE HECK IS UP THERE.
BUT IT CERTAINLY COMES FROM THAT QUADRANT UP THERE, WHICH MADE ME SUSPECT BECAUSE OF THE WAY IT MOVES THAT IT'S SOME KIND OF MOBILE SOURCE.
SO HOW ABOUT ROAD CONSTRUCTION? IS THERE A LOT OF ROAD CONSTRUCTION GOING ON ALONG THERE? THE SINCE SINCE 12 YEP.
COULD, COULD BE THAT THERE'S SOMETHING IN THE OPERATION OF THE ROAD CONSTRUCTION.
UH, IS IT TAR, IS IT, UH, IS IT ASPHALT PRODUCTION THEY'RE DOING ALONG THE, I DON'T KNOW.
THAT'S WHY YOU GOTTA HAVE SOMETHING THAT CAN SEE THIS STUFF AND THEN YOU GO LOOK AND YOU MIGHT BE SURPRISED AT WHAT IT IS.
AND AGAIN, IT DOESN'T HAVE TO BE HUGE IN TERMS OF MASS.
IT NEEDS TO BE ABLE TO CREATE A PLUME ABOUT KILOMETER OR SO WIDE, MAYBE 15 KILOMETERS LONG.
SO SOME SOURCE SITTING THERE COOKING IN A STEADY SLOW WIND COULD, COULD SEND A PLUME DOWN THAT DOESN'T GET VERY SPREAD OUT AND GOES BY THE MONITOR AND YOU GET A HUGE VIOLATION.
UM, HAVE YOU WORKED WITH T C E Q ON ON THIS MODELING AND, AND OH YEAH.
THEORIES ON THIS ARE, ARE THEY ACCEPTING YOUR, YOUR WORK AND ARE THEY, ARE THEY APPROVING YOUR WORK.
I'M NOT HAVING TO SUBMIT ANYTHING THEY HAVE TO APPROVE.
I'M DOING SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH IN A BUNCH OF PLACES THEY ALL COME TO, SO THE LAST TWO SEMINAR, THREE SEMINARS I GAVE WITHIN THE LAST YEAR, THE ROOM WAS PACKED FULL AND WE HAD LOTS OF DISCUSSION AND BRIMER WAS THERE AND BRIMER INVITED US TO COME THERE AND WE TALKED AND FILLED THEM IN.
SEVERAL OF THEM LIKED WHAT WE WERE DOING.
BUT SEE, THEY DON'T HAVE TO USE THAT TO MAKE ANY DECISIONS.
IT'S WHEN YOU GET DOWN TO THE NITTY GRITTY OF HAVING TO MAKE UP A CONTROL STRATEGY OF POLICY AND ALL OF THIS THAT THINGS GET MEAN.
SOMEBODY UP THERE GOT THE IDEA THAT I SAID THERE'S H HR VOCS DOWN HERE.
I NEVER USED THE TERM HIGHLY REACTIVE VOCS.
THOSE ARE ETHYLENE, PROPYLENE, TRIMETHYL, BENZENE BUTY, SO ON.
THOSE ARE THE ONES THAT GOT CONTROL IN HOUSTON THAT WERE CAUSING ALL THE PROBLEMS IN HOUSTON BECAUSE OF THE PETRO, BECAUSE OF THE PLASTICS INDUSTRY.
THE HYDROCARBONS HERE WERE THOSE, HERE'S WHAT'S HAPPENED.
THEY'VE LOWERED THE STANDARD LOWER AND LOWER.
YOU USED TO HAVE TO HAVE THOSE TO GET ABOVE THE REALLY HIGH STANDARD THEY HAD IN A SHORT TIME.
THE STANDARD NOW IS 70, SO IT'S NOT HARD TO HAVE OLEFINS AND AROMATICS GASOLINE SPILLS THAT ARE ADEQUATE TO GET THE OZONE ABOVE THAT 70.
IN OTHER WORDS, Y'ALL ARE GETTING, THE WHOLE COUNTRY'S GETTING SQUEEZED AT THE 70 BECAUSE IT'S SO EASY TO GET THERE.
AND SO LOTS OF THINGS YOU'VE BEEN ABLE TO GET AWAY WITH AND NOBODY'S PAYING ANY ATTENTION TO, THEY'RE NOW GONNA COME TO THE FOREFRONT.
THAT'S MORE LIKELY WHAT'S GOING ON.
YOU HAVE A SOURCE THAT'S NOT BEING ILLEGAL, THEY'RE DOING
[01:55:01]
WHAT THEY'VE ALWAYS DONE, ET CETERA, ET CETERA.BUT THE STANDARD HAS DROPPED AND NOW WHAT THEY WERE DOING THAT USED TO BE OKAY, AIN'T OKAY ANYMORE.
THAT'S WHAT I THINK IS THE ESSENCE OF THE PROBLEM.
IT'S NOT SOME PLANT SITTING SOMEWHERE SPEWING OUT OCCASIONALLY, UH, HR VOCS OR SOMETHING LIKE THIS.
THIS IS, THIS ISN'T, NOBODY'S DOING THIS DELIBERATELY AND THEY MAY NOT EVEN KNOW THEY'RE DOING IT.
BRIDGER, I'VE GOT A COUPLE QUESTIONS FOR YOU.
SO, ARE WE GONNA USE THIS REPORT, UH, OR HAS ACOG SEEN THIS REPORT? ACOG GOT THIS REPORT THE SAME DAY I DID.
AND IS T C E Q GONNA GET THIS REPORT? T E C Q HAS THIS REPORT.
HAVE THEY MADE ANY COMMENTS OR ONE WAY OR THE OTHER SAYING, YEAH, THIS IS GREAT, OR NO, WE'RE NOT PAYING ANY ATTENTION TO IT.
WE HAVE NOT HAD OUR MONTHLY CALL SINCE THEY GOT THE REPORT.
SO MY GUESS IS THAT MAY COME UP AT OUR NEXT MONTHLY CALL.
I'D REALLY BE INTERESTED TO SEE WHAT THEY HAVE TO SAY.
AND I, YOU KNOW, AND, AND, UH, COUNCILWOMAN SANDOVAL, I, I HEAR WHAT YOU SAY ABOUT, UH, ACOG, BUT REALLY THEY ARE THE AGENCY THAT DEALS WITH T C E Q ON THE MONITORING.
ARE THEY NOT, DON'T THEY GET THE, THE, UM, UH, THE GRANTS FOR THE, FOR THE MONITORS AND GO OUT AND DO THE READINGS AND DO THE READINGS, THAT KIND OF THING? YOU DO THE READINGS? YES, SIR.
AND HOW, WHERE DO THE READINGS GO? T C E Q DIRECTLY TO T C E Q.
SO ACOG REALLY ISN'T IN THE, IN THE MIX.
I MEAN, THEY'RE AN IMPORTANT PARTNER AND BEFORE WE WERE IN NON-ATTAINMENT AND IT WAS A REGIONAL EFFORT TO IMPROVE OVERALL AIR QUALITY.
UM, BUT NOW THAT IT IS SPECIFIC TO BEAR COUNTY, SPECIFIC TO OZONE, UM, WE'RE NEEDING TO FIND OUR WAY ON OUR OWN.
DOES THAT MEAN WE'RE NOT, WE'RE THEY'RE NOT A PART OF THIS PROCESS? OR WHAT DO YOU MEAN BY ON OUR OWN? THEY'RE A PARTNER RATHER THAN THE LEADER.
UM, ON THIS, UH, ISN'T THERE A LAWSUIT AGAINST THE E P A FROM THE STATE? THAT IS MY UNDERSTANDING.
YOU DON'T KNOW ANYTHING ABOUT THAT LAWSUIT OR WHAT IT NO.
WHAT IT IS OR WHAT IT'S ABOUT? NO.
WHEN I HEARD THAT WE NEEDED TO KEEP WORKING ON LOWERING THE OZONE, THAT'S WHAT I FOCUSED ON.
SO I DON'T REALLY KNOW ANYTHING ABOUT THAT.
UM, THAT'S ALL OF MY QUESTIONS.
THAT, UH, CONCLUDES OUR, THE SESSION FOR TODAY.
THE TIME IS NOW 4:10 PM ON THE 17TH DAY OF OCTOBER, 2018.
PURSUANT TO THE AUTHORITY GRANTED BY CHAPTER 5 5, 1 IN THE TEXAS GOVERNMENT CODE V T C S, THE TEXAS OPEN MEETINGS ACT, CITY COUNCIL WILL NOW RECESS INTO EXECUTIVE SESSION TO DISCUSS ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT NEGOTIATIONS PURSUANT TO TEXAS GOVERNMENT SE CODE SECTION 5 5 1 0.087, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, PURCHASE EXCHANGE, LEASE, OR VALUE OF REAL PROPERTY PURSUANT TO TEXAS GOVERNMENT CODE SECTION 5 5 1 0 7 2 REAL PROPERTY AND LEGAL ISSUES RELATED TO CO RELATED TO CONTEMPLATED OR ANTICIPATED LITIGATION INVOLVING ZONING, BOARD OF ADJUSTMENT DECISIONS PURSUANT TO TEXAS GOVERNMENT CODE SECTION 5 5 1 0.071 CONSULTATION WITH ATTORNEY.